Academic English-Food Security The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

H. Charles J. Godfray, 1 * John R. Beddington, 2 Ian R. Crute, 3 Lawrence Haddad, 4 David

Lawrence, 5

James F. Muir, 6 Jules Pretty, 7 Sherman Robinson, 8 Sandy M. Thomas, 9 Camilla Toulmin 10

Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.

The past half-century has seen marked growth in food production, allowing for a dramatic decrease in the proportion of the world’s people that are hungry, despite a doubling of the total population (Fig. 1) (1, 2). Nevertheless, more than one in seven people today still do not have access to sufficient protein and energy from their diet, and even more suffer from some form of micronutrient malnourishment (3). The world is now facing a new set of intersecting challenges (4). The global population will continue to grow, yet it is likely to plateau at some 9 billion people by roughly the middle of this century. A major correlate of this deceleration in population growth is increased wealth, and with higher purchasing power comes higher consumption and a greater demand for processed food, meat, dairy, and fish, all of which add pressure to the food supply system. At the same time, food producers are experiencing greater competition for land, water, and energy, and the need to curb the many negative effects of food production on the environment is becoming increasingly clear (5, 6). Overarching all of these issues is the threat of the effects of substantial climate change and concerns about how mitigation and adaptation measures may affect the food system (7, 8).

A threefold challenge now faces the world (9): Match the rapidly changing demand for food from a larger and more affluent population to its supply; do so in ways that are environmentally and socially sustainable; and ensure that the world’s poorest people are no longer hungry.This challenge requires changes in the way food is produced, stored, processed, distributed, and accessed that are as radical as those that occurred during the 18th- and 19th-century Industrial and Agricultural Revolutions and the 20th-century Green Revolution. Increases in production will have an important part to play, but they will be constrained as never before by the finite resources provided by Earth’s lands, oceans, and atmosphere (10).

Patterns in global food prices are indicators of trends in the availability of food, at least for those who can afford it and have access to world markets. Over the past century, gross food prices have generally fallen, leveling off in the past three decades but punctuated by price spikes such as that caused by the 1970s oil crisis. In mid-2008, there was an unexpected rapid rise in food prices, the cause of which is still being debated, that subsided when the world economy went into recession (11). However, many (but not all) commentators have predicted that this spike heralds a

period of rising and more volatile food prices driven primarily by increased demand from rapidly developing countries, as well as by competition for resources from first-generation biofuels production (12). Increased food prices will stimulate greater investment in food production, but the critical importance of food to human well-being and also to social and political stability makes it likely that governments and other organizations will want to encourage food production beyond that driven by simple market mechanisms (13). The long-term nature of returns on investment for many aspects of food production and the importance of policies that promote sustainability and equity also argue against purely relying on market solutions.

So how can more food be produced sustainably? In the past, the primary solution to food shortages has been to bring more land into agriculture and to exploit new fish stocks. Yet over the past 5 decades, while grain production has more than doubled, the amount of land devoted to arable agriculture globally has increased by only ~9% (14). Some new land could be brought into cultivation, but the competition for land from other human activities makes this an increasingly unlikely and costly solution, particularly if protecting biodiversity and the public goods provided by natural ecosystems (for example, carbon storage in rainforest) are given higher priority (15). In recent decades, agricultural land that was formerly productive has been lost to urbanization and other human uses, as well as to desertification, salinization, soil erosion, and other consequences of unsustainable land management (16). Further losses, which may be exacerbated by climate change, are likely (7). Recent policy decisions to produce first generation biofuels on good quality agricultural land have added to the competitive pressures (17). Thus, the most likely scenario is that more food will need to be produced from the same amount of (or even less) land. Moreover, there are no major new fishing grounds: Virtually all capture fisheries are fully exploited, and most are overexploited.

*The writers are members of the UK Government Office for Science's Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures.

Source: Adapted from Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., et al. (2010). The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science. 327 (5987), 812-818.

Fig. 1. Changes in the relative global production of crops and animals since 1961 (when relative production scaled to 1 in 1961). (A) Major crop plants and (B) major types of livestock. [Source: (2)]

Main grains (wheat, barley,maize, rice, oats)

Coarse grains (millet, sorghum)

Root crops (cassava, potato)

Chickens

Pigs

Cattle and buffalo

Sheep and goats

4.3.

Look at the words and phrases in the table below and find words and phrases in the text with a similar meaning.

Complete the table with the word or phrase, its word class and the number of the line where it appears. Note that the definitions are listed in the same order as the relevant words in the text.

Text 5b looks in more detail at the issues we face in producing enough food to feed our growing world population.

Understanding the Focus task

You need to think carefully about what the task asks you to do, because it will determine what you should concentrate on in your reading. It will also determine how you read. You are going to read three more texts and produce a set of notes that will help you complete the assignment specified in the Focus task.

5.1 Read the first part of the Focus task. What is your reaction? Choose from 1-5.

1 I'm amazed

2 I'm quite surprised.

3 I'm concerned.

4 I'm unconcerned.

5 I'm not surprised.

5.2 List some possible reasons for the unprecedented phenomenon mentioned in the Focus task. Compare your list with those of other students.

5.3 Now look at the second part of the Focus task and answer the two questions.

1 .In what ways have)our eating habits and those of your friends and family changed since childhood?

2. Can you explain why these changes might have occurred?

5.4 Write answers to questions 1-4. Then discuss your answers with other students. All the questions relate to the second part of the Focus task.

1.There are two questions. What are they?

2. Discuss these questions with other students. What do you understand by the challenges?

3. What do you understand by measures?

4. Do you need to consider all possible measures or just the most effective ones?

Predicting specific content in a text

You have already practised predicting content as a way of improving comprehension.

Prediction can be even more effective when you focus on specific issues you expect to

find in the text.

6.1 Brainstorm ideas with other students.

What will Text Sh identify as:

1 .the main challenges involved in feeding a rapidly expanding global population?

2. the measures that need to he taken to meet these challenges?

6.2 Read the abstract from Text Sb and compare it with what you wrote in Ex 6.1

The abstract briefly mentions the ch川enges and measures needing to he taken. Did you think of any of the same issues?

Identifying the main ideas

7.1 Match the brief summaries to the main contents of the four sections, 1-4, of the text on the next page. There is one extra summary that is less appropriate. For this summary write N/A (not appropriate).

Developing notes

Re-read the text and write notes relating to the challenges the Focus task mentions and necessary measures that need to be taken.

8.1 Read the text once and write brief notes relevant to the assignment. A Read the text once and write brief notes relevant to the assignment. B Discuss your notes with another student and amend them if necessary C Refer back to the text and add any further notes if appropriate. D Use your notes to help you complete the table below.

Key reading skills ：

developing notes

Well-written notes will provide you with an effective tool for revision and writing research. You should therefore practise developing your own style f note-taking-one that works for you. Bear in mind

that your notes will lways be more effective if you have a clear idea of what information you ish to extract from the text before you begin reading.

Organising paragraphs into a logical order

A well-written paragraph should be both coherent and cohesive. The task below will provide further practice in organising a paragraph in such a way. Remember to pay attention to cohesive markers, such as linking words and expressions, and any pronoun referencing or other words/phrases that link back to previous ideas.

9.1 Reorganise the paragraph in the table below in a logical order. Nummer the sentences

A well-written text should be both coherent and cohesive. The coherence comes from the logical ordering of the text content and the cohesion comes from the appropriate use of linguistic features such as cohesive markers, e.g., however, subsequently, in this respect, these, etc.

Working out meaning from context and considering word class

10.1 Complete the table on the next page with words or phrases of the same or similar meaning (i.e., synonyms) from Text Sb, Sections 1-3. Write the word class and the line number where it appears in the text.

The words in the left column are listed in the same order as the relevant synonyms in the text.

The words and phrases in the table above have been selected because they could be very useful for you to know and to be able to use during your future academic studies. Try to work out the meaning of such words and phrases (if you do not already know them) from the context and then record them in your vocabulary notebook.

One major decision you need to make when reading an academic text is to decide which parts of the text are the most relevant to your reading needs. This will save you time and allow you to make the best use of the most relevant material.