光伏PET膜

2011?7?4?

???お??g???おgЁ??????????601208

?????

????

?????????????1966?????????????????????????????1994??????????????05?????????????

???????????????????催???????????????????????????????????????1989?????????

??????????????3.08?????????催???37.8%????????????5%??????????????????3%???

??????????????2011?5???????6400???????????催?????????????????????48.5%???????36???

?1?????2010???????

?? 12%

??????? 6%??????? 5%???????? %

??????? 17%

?????? 47%

???⑤?wind ?Ё????お????2???????????

???⑤?wind ?Ё????お???

?3?????2010?????

?????? 52%

??????? 17%

???????? %

??????? 4%??????? 5%?? 10%

???⑤?wind ?Ё????お????4

???????????

???⑤?wind ?Ё????お???

?5??????????????

???⑤?wind?Ё????お????6???????????

???⑤?wind?Ё????お???

??????啭???

??????????????

???????????????催???????有???????????????????90%???????????Ё??????????????????????????????⑤??????ㄝ????乚????????????????????Ё???????????????????????????????????╂?ㄝ??????????????????????????????????????????????Ё?????????????????2009?????????????130?????4??????????20%?

?7?????????乚???????

??, 26.6%

????

6.1%

?????

16.7%

?? 13.3%

?????

8%,7?? %

???, 5.4%

???⑤?????2010????Ё????お????8?2005-2009

?Ё???????????

???⑤?Ё??????????????Ё????お???

?1????????????乚?

??????乚???

????????????

?????????????

????∴????????∴

??????????????

咥?????????????????????

?????????ㄝ????1.6?????????8000??

??????乚???

???????????????????????4000??

???????

????????????ㄝ?800??

???????????????催???????

????????

???????????Ё????????????

?2400??

????????? - ?????催?????????? 3000??

???? - 催???? 3000??

???????

???????????

????

????????????????????ㄝ

8000??

???????? - ????????ㄝ 1000??

???⑤?????????к?Ё????お???

?Й??????????

????????1994?????????????????1966???????????????

?50???Й????????????Ё?????????????????

?1?????????50???????????偠??????????????乚??????

?????????????ā???????????ā????????∴????ā??????D125ā

??????????????????????乍??ā863ā?????ā???ā??????乍?

????????ㄝ?乍???お?乬???????14乍???????12乍???????????????????Ё???????????????????????????????????????

3?????????????????????????乚????ゲ????

?2?????????????????

2007?2008?2009?2010?

????

????????????????????????????????????

???? - -

1,420?? 2% 2,308?? 3.38% 3,505?? 3.44% ???? 1,120?? 5.11% 832?? 3.72% 733?? 3.42% 635?? 2.52% ???? 313?? 2.51% 704?? 5.37% 626?? 2.99% - - ???⑤?????????Ё????お???

?2???????????????????????????????????????????

??????????????????ㄝ7???????????????????????????

?????????8???????????200?????????????????唤??????

????????????????300MW??????????????????10??????8

?????5??????????1??????????5????????????????????????????????????E?B?F?H?C?????ㄝ????????????????

?????Y?A?E?Bㄝ7?ㄝ???ЁY????????90??C????180???

?3????????????????????

????

???????

????????

??????09?????

???? 26乍??????????????????????????????????ㄝ? 6.8??

????9乍???????????? 2.1??

???? 13乍??????????????????????????????????ㄝ?乘?4-6??????3乍???????? 2.1??

???⑤?Ё??????????????キ?Ё????お???

????????????????ㄝ????????????乚??ゲ????2009?????????????6.4?????????乱?5%????????乚??啭????

??????+??????????????

??3(7???????????

PET??????????Э????????????????????????????????????PX?????????PX?????PTA?有??????????PTA?MEG?Э???????PET?PET????????????????PET??????2um-350um?ㄝ??Ё??????乚?????250um?PET?????∈?????????????????????乚??PET????????2.7??/???????40%?

?9???????∴??PET

????????????⑤??????Ё????お????10??????PET

?????????⑤??????Ё????お???

????BOPET??????????????Ё催ッ?????????乚???????2010???BOPET??90???????Ё??88%????????乚??????????????????10??????????∴????????PET??????催?????????250um?????????????250um???????????????????????吓??????

?4??????????????????乱

???? 2009???????????乱??????

???? 18,000

18.0%

?

?????601208.SH? 17,800 17.8% ?

????吓????????49%? 14,200 14.2% ?????

Ф??? 13,100

13.1%

?

???Б 10,200

10.2%

?

???⑤?Ё??????????????Ё????お???

????PET?????????催????????1??????????????????????????????????????????????Ё????????????Ё????????????乚?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Ё??????催ッPET??????催????????????????????????????????ㄝ????????偠????2??????BOPET ????????????1?????????????Ё????????催??????

?11?PET

????????????⑤?????????к?Ё????お????12???PET ???BOPET ??Ё???催

???⑤?Wind ?????10????Ё????お?乘?

???????????????????PET ????催?????1GW ???∴???????750?m2?????????PET ??1.05 m2???1GW ?????PET ??800?m2???250um ???1.3-1.5g/cm3????2800??2010???????∴???20.5GW ?乘???PET ??????1.5??????5.2????????????15?????10??????????50%????ゲ??????BOPET ??啭?????Б???-?????SKC ㄝ?催ッ??PET ???????????ゲ?????????????????????????乚???????さ??

?13??????PET

??????????乘?

24681003

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11E 12E 13E

????0

510152025????

??3(7?????

????

???⑤?EPIA ?Ё????お?乘??14?2010?????PET ??乚?ゲ???

??Toyobo,

4.8%??, 16.2%

????,8.1%

??-??,17.3%

??SKC,15.8%

Mitsubishi Polyester Film,

9.6%

???Б,20.8%

????,7.5%

???⑤?Displaybank ?Ё????お?乘?

??????????????PET ??????????????10?9??????????????????30%????????????????????????????ㄝ??????????????????????????4%-6%????????????????Ё??Ф?????????????????????П????PET ???????????????????????????????????????????????Ф???????????Ё????????ㄝ???????2010?????3900??????乱?8%??

?15????????????????????

1.2

1.41.61.8

2.02.2Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11

? :?50

60708090100? NJ?

???????

???⑤?Solarzoom ?Ё????お?乘??16?????????ゲ???

??, 16.8%????,4.9%????,18.1%Madico,14.5%

Krempel,10.8%

Isovoltaic,30.4%

????,4.6%???⑤??????お???Ё????お?乘?

???????????PET ?????1.6????????????PET ??????????8000??????Ё?ッ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????乘?2011?????PET ?????????9000????????130%??????乍???1.5???????????????Ё???乘??????2013?Ё???????????????催???П????PET ??????????????????????∈????乘?2011-2013???PET ????????EPS 0.28/0.35/0.53??2010???0.08???

??乍????????乜??

????乍?????5???????????Ё?????????????????????????????????3?乍?????????????????乘???9???????????2012?????70-80%????????????????????????????????2012?????????П??乘???乍????????EPS 0.18??

?5???????乍????????乘?????

乍???

??????

乘??? ?????

乘?????

?????????? 4,696?? 3500? 1.3??/2,376?? 2011?9????2012???70-80%??????????? 4,990?? 4000? 1.2??/1,908?? 2011?9????2012???70-80%???????????????? 7,065?? 7000? 1.8??/2,649?? 2011?9????2012???70-80%???????????? 14,365?? 3500? 1.2??/2,154?? 2013?Ё?????????????PET ? 24,760?? 1.5?? 3.4??/5,707?? 2013?Ё??????

???⑤?????????к?Ё????お???

???????????15.3???????乍?5.6???1.5?????????0.6???ф????????????????7.6???????????PET ??乚????????????????????????ㄝ?????????乍????乘????????乚???乍????????????

??催???????????ぎ?

???????????┰???

?????????Ё??????????????????????????????????????????佄???乚???????????????CMAI?????2010????????????3400???????????????47%????????????乚???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????10%?15%???????????????.???

????????????????????????????????????????????г???????????????????????????????ㄝ??????????Й?г?????????????????????????????????????????????????????Э?????????????????????????

?6???????????

??????????????????

????????????(????????????)?????????????,?????

?,????催?????Ё,??催???,?????(????)???,???

????????,??????????

???????????ㄝ?

????????????PET??Ё?????????????????????催?,???

???????????????

???Б?????-???

???????????????????????Ё??????????????????

?????????????,??????????Ё?????????????

????????????????????,?????????????????

?????????Й????

?????

???⑤??????????????Ё????お???

????????乚?????????????????????????????????????????乍??????さ??????????????????????偠??Ё?????????????ㄝ??????????????????????????????????10%?????????????50%????????????????????????100??????2??/????????????????200????????????????

???????Ё?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????乘?2011??????????2000?????????260-300?/?????????????????????PET??П????????????????????

??乘?

2011?2012????????PET ???????????乍??????2013?乘???PET ??????????????????????????????????????????????:

?7?????

(?????) 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E ????

????????

?????

4,824 4,891 5,280 5,565 6,650

?? 170 173 190 200 239

???(%) 2 10 5 19 ???(%) 28 30 28 26 25

2010???4800????乍?????3500??乘?2013???

??????????????

?????

1,926 2,338 3,000 5,320 5,820

?? 78 108 136 237 250 ???(%) 39 25 74 6

???(%) 32 32 32 32 32

2010???2350??2011?9?

????乍???3500????

?????乘?2012????70-80%?

??????

????? 576 1,500 2,400 4,500 5,400

?? 22 58 86 159 189 ???(%) 165 50 84 19

???(%) 19 30 30 30 30

2010???1000??2011?9?

????乍???4000????

?????乘?2012????70-80%?

???????????

?????

1,427 1,811 2,800 6,000 8,000

?? 45 64 103 212 276 ???(%) 43 61 106 30

???(%) 25 25 25 25 25 2010??? 3000??2011?9?

????乍???7000????

?????乘?2012????70-80%?

???????????

????? 2,100 4,800 15,000

?? 42 91 270 ???(%) 117 196

???(%) 35 32 26

????260-300?/??乘???

??????????????∴??PET ?

????? 947 3,904 9,299 12,398 20,341

?? 18 82 279 347 529

???(%) 344 240 24 52

???(%) 40 45 44 42 40

乘?2011???1???2012?1.2?????乍???1???

?乘?2013???????????????

????? 16,852 20,615 15,400 13,200 16,800

?? 244 396 339 277 336

???(%) 62 -14 -18 21 ???(%) 24 30 32 31 30 ????????????2.4????Ё????1.6?????????8000?????????

PET ????????????????????

?? 105 138 159 190 381 ?????????ㄝ???

?????? 683 1,019 1,334 1,714 2,470 ???(%) 49 31 28 44 ?????(%)

27 30 32 31 29

???⑤?wind ?Ё????お?乘?

???????

??2010?EPS ?0.59????乘???2011-2013??EPS ???0.81/1.06/1.48 (36%CAGR)??Ё?

?PET ?????????0.28/0.35/0.53??2010???0.08?????????2010-2013?PE ???39/28/22/15????wind ??????????????????PEG ?1.9???????????????????????∴???????????PEG ?1.3?????????PET ?????催??????????????????????ㄝ?乍??????????1.4?PEG ?????30??佪?????āф?ā???

?8???????????????????????

PE(x)

PB(x) ? ?? ?

??????

??????

10

11E

12E

10

PEG

EPS CAGR

002389.SZ ???? 25.4 34 58.3 42.7 23.0 4.8 2.9 19.9 000973.SZ ???? 13.62 83 48.2 30.8 17.2 6.3 1.4 35.2 002263.SZ ??? 10.98 51 66.0 33.3 18.6 3.6 1.3 52.5

??

56.2 57.5 35.6 19.6 4.9 1.9 31.0

300093.SZ ???? 13.77 30 68.0 26.7 17.6 3.7 1.8 38.2 300041.SZ ???? 33.30 35 40.0 29.3 21.6 4.2 1.1 36.8 600586.SH ???? 8.32 118 32.9 26.1 20.0 4.4 1.1 30.5 300160.SZ ????

32.90 31 51.6 34.2 24.3 13.7 1.2 42.9 ??

53.5 48.2 29.1 20.8 6.5 1.3 37.4

601208.SH

???? 22.78 70 38.5 28.3 21.6 11.2 1.1 35.9

???⑤?wind ?Ё????お???

亢???

????????亢??????????????????75%??????????????乚?????????????????????????????????????????????乚????????????????????? ??ゲ????亢???????Ё催ッ???????PET ??乚?????????????

????????????乚????????さ????????????????亢??

??????????????????

2010

2012E2013E

2012E2013E???? 2009

2011E

???? 2009

2010

2011E

1,549

1,244

???? 683 1,019 1,334 1,714 2,470 ???? 110 96 1,371

???? 500 716 908 1,187 1,746 ?? 117 188 227 297 437 ??? 26.8% 29.7% 31.9% 30.8%29.3%???? 182 233 256 329 474 ??????? 3 5 7 9 12 ?????? 54 59 67 43 49 ???? 31 39 51 62 86 ???? 463 575 1,921 1,912 2,508 ????? 4.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% ???? 285 309 540 768 608 ???? 48 62 74 89 102 ?????? 0 0 0 0 0 ????? 7.1% 6.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.1% ???? 43 65 74 89 98 ???? 18 20 11 -7 -10 ?????? 8 10 6 11 2 ????? 2.6% 2.0% 0.8% -0.4%-0.4%????? 335 384 620 868 708 ???? 0 1 0 0 0 ???? 799 959 2,541 2,780 3,216 ???? 82 178 284 376 533 ???? 279 255 128 70 74 ????? 12.0% 17.5% 21.3% 21.9%21.6%???? 40 37 62 81 120 ????? 7 8 10 8 8 ?????? 39 43 40 50 60 ????? 0 0 0 0 0 ???? 357 335 230 202 254 ???乱 89 186 294 384 541 ???? 78 78 0 0 0 ??? 1 2 44 58 81 ?????? 19 31 36 40 40 ???? 1.3% 1.3% 15.0% 15.0%15.0%?????? 97 109 36 40 40 ?????? 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 ???? 454 444 266 242 294

??????

87 182 248 324 456 ?? 169 228 308 308 308 ??????

??? 12.8% 17.9% 18.6% 18.9%18.5%???? 174 280 1,958 2,220 2,599

?????? 343 508 2,266 2,528 2,907

?????? 2 7 9 10 15 ????????????????

799 959 2,541 2,780 3,216

??

2012E2013E

2011E

2010

???? 2009

???? 89 186 294 384 541 ?????? 2009 2010 2011E 2012E2013E

????? -1 -2 -44 -58 -81 ???? ?

????? 32 35 45 75 113 ???? -3.8 49.2 31.0 28.5 44.1 ?????? -21 -126 -47 -90 -243 ???? 21.0 97.4 49.6 25.1 42.0 ?? 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 ??? 40.2 109.0 35.9 30.9 40.7

????? 99 90 246 310 326 ???? ?

???? -48 -56 -274 -300 50 ??? 26.8 29.7 31.9 30.8 29.3 ???? 0 1 0 0 0 (%,7 0DUJLQ 14.6 19.3 22.1 21.5 21.2 ???? 0 0 0 0 0 (%,7'$ 0DUJLQ19.4 22.7 25.5 25.9 25.8 ?? -5 -27 -8 -23 -3 ???12.8 18.0 18.7 19.0 18.6

-323

47 ???? ?

-82

????? -52

-282

???? 0 0 1,600 0 0 ?????? 28.3 42.8 17.9 13.5 16.8 ???? -3 -24 -205 -58 4 ?????? 11.7 20.9 14.3 12.3 15.3 ???? 0 0 -90 -62 -77 ??? ?

?? -15 1 7 5 5 ????? 56.8 46.3 10.5 8.7 9.1

????? -18 -23 1,312 -114 -68 ???? 1.3 1.3 15.0 15.0 15.0

?????ㄝ

28 -15 1,276 -128 305 ??? 0.0 49.4 24.9 23.7 20.3 ?????乱

???⑤?Ё??????????

?????Analyst Certification

????????お???????????お?????????i ???お???????????有????????????????????????????ii ???????????????????????????????????????お?????????????????The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

?????

???????????????????????????????????Ё????????????????????āЁ???ā???????????????Ё?????????????????????????????????????????????Ё?????????Ё??????Ё?????к?????????????????????????????????????????Ё???????????????Ё???????????????

???????????????????????????????????????????П??????????????ф?????????????????????Ё???г??????????????Ё???????

?????????⑤????????Ё?????????Ё????????????????????????乏???????Ё????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Ё?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Ё??????????????????????????????????????г??????????????????????????????????Ё??????????????????

Ё???????????????????乚???????П???????????????????お????????催???????????????????Ё????????????????????????????????Ё?????????????

??????????Ё????????????催????/???(??????????????)??(1)?????????????????乒??????????????(2)????????????????????????????????????Ё????????????催????/??????????????????????????????Ё???????????????????????????????????????/????????????????????

?Ё???????????????????????????????????????????????????Ё??????????????????????Ё?????????????П??????????Ё???????催???????????????П?????????????????????????????????

Ё??????????????????2011????????????

??Ё????????????????Ё?????????????????????????

????

?? ??

ф???Ё?300????20%???

????Ё?300??????5%?20%П??????Ё?300??????-10%?5%П????????

????Ё?300????10%?????????Ё?300????10%???

Ё???Ё?300??????-10%?10%П??1.

?????????

????????????????

???????6?????????????????????6????????????????????????Ё???300??????????2.

?????????

???????6????????????????????????Ё???300???????

??????????

??Ё?300????10%??

??

??

??

Ё????????? ???

???????偀??48?Ё??????100125?

??????????1568?Ё???22??200122?

??????Ё???8?Ё??????518048?

佭?Ё????1?Ё???26?

Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. ?????????お??????????-?????

This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities ”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors ” as defined in Rule 15a-6

and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. ????Ё?????????

???āЁ???ā??Ё???????????????????Z20374000???????1934????????????15a-6(a) (2)??????????Ё?????15a-6??????????????????????

Н?ā?????????ā???

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