对外经贸802经济学综合英译汉真题详解

对外经济贸易大学802经济学综合英译汉真题详解

2011年专业英语（英译中，共50分）

1. Price controls （20分）

Governments have been trying to set maximum or minimum prices since ancient times. The appeal of price controls is understandable. Even though they fail to protect many consumers and hurt others, controls hold out the promise of protecting groups that are particularly hard-pressed to meet price increases. Thus, the prohibition against usury---charging high interest on loans--was intended to protect someone forced to borrow out of desperation; the maximum price for bread was supposed to protect the poor, who depended on bread to survive; and rent controls were supposed to protect those who were renting when the demand for apartments exceeded the supply, and landlords were preparing to "gouge" their tenants.

Despite the frequent use of price controls, however, and despite their appeal, economists are generally opposed to them, except perhaps for very brief periods during emergencies. The reason most economists are skeptical about price controls is that they distort the allocation of resources. Price ceilings, which prevent prices from exceeding a certain maximum, cause shortages. Price floors, which prohibit prices below a certain minimum, cause surpluses, at least for a time. Because controls prevent the price system from rationing the available supply, some other mechanism must take its place. A queue, once a familiar sight in the controlled economies of Eastern Europe, is one possibility.

With all of the problems generated by controls, we can well ask why they are ever imposed and why they are sometimes maintained for so long. The answer, in part, is that the public does not always see the links between controls and the problems they create. General price controls--controls on prices of many goods--are often imposed when the public becomes alarmed that inflation is out of control. However, most inflation, even in wartime, is due to inflationary monetary and fiscal policies rather than to panic buying. Inflation is extremely difficult to contain through general controls, in part because the attempt to limit control to a manageable sector of the economy is usually hopeless. By examining cases in which controls have prevented the price mechanism from working, we gain a better appreciation of its usual elegance and efficiency. This does not mean that there are no circumstances in which temporary controls may be effective. But a fair reading of economic history shows just how rare those circumstances are.

参考译文：

价格控制

从远古时代，政府就一直尝试着制定最高或最低价格，由此可见价格控制的巨大吸引力。即使这种做法并没有保护大部分的消费者，而且伤害了一部分人的利益，价格控制却坚守住了政府要保护最低消费群体应对价格上涨的承诺。因此，对高利贷（向贷款者收取高利率）的禁止旨在保护那些处在绝境中被迫借款的人们；对面包实行最高限价意在保护那些依靠面包生存的穷人；对租金的控制也是为了保护需要租房子住的人们的利益，众所周知，当住房的需求超过供给时，房东们时刻准备着“压榨”他们的房客。

但是，不管价格控制多么频繁的被使用，或者多么具有吸引力，除了在一些特定的紧急时期，一般来说，经济学家们是反对其作用的。造成大多数经济学家对价格控制持怀疑态度

的原因在于它扭曲了资源的合理分配。最高限价，即政府规定某种产品的价格不能超过某一最大值，将导致供给短缺；最低限价，即政府规定某种产品的价格不能低于某一最小值，又将至少在一段时间内导致供给过剩。由于价格控制造成了价格机制不能合理的根据供给调节价格，势必会引起其他机制的发生，在东欧计划经济时期，经常看见的一列列消费者排队抢购，就是价格控制常见的结果。

既然价格控制会产生如此多的问题，我们不禁会问，为什么它们会经常被用，又为什么有时会持续那么长时间？部分原因就是公众并不是总能够看到价格控制与其产生的问题之间的联系，比如说，对大宗商品实行限制价格（限制许多商品的价格）一般是在公众警觉出通货膨胀已经失去控制的时候。然而，即使是在战争时期，大多数通货膨胀都是由于宽松的货币政策或财政政策，而不是人们疯狂抢购。通过一般的价格限制来控制通货膨胀几乎是不可能的，一部分是因为将限价对经济体的影响限制在一个可管理的水平上的尝试通常是没有结果的。纵观那些由于限价导致价格机制不能发挥作用的案例，我们将会对它的有效性有更好的了解。这并不意味着在任何情况下临时的价格控制都是无效的，只是通过对经济历史一个公平的回顾，我们会发现，这种情况是如此的稀少。

2．The future of Chinese M&A （20 分）

Where will M&A be targeted? The data available to date on larger deals mask some trends identified by those on the front -lines of the deal-making. "Diversification is a natural process, evolution," says the head of China M&A at a Western investment bank.. "The government may have given rigid marching orders in the past, but it's now more market-oriented. There has been a concentration of deals among some successful companies but more and more companies are now looking." This will include different sectors and private companies, and also more regional SOEs, such as Yanzhou Coal, which recently bought Australia's Felix Resources.

It is a safe bet that Chinese finns will continue to seek a secure supply of mining and natural-resource assets. These are the fuels of the mighty Chinese industrial juggemaut, which has a ways to go before shifting into top gear. But the nature of investment in resources is likely to change. As we have already seen, CIC, China's sovereign wealth fund, has become more active in accessing resource deals. Companies directly involved in the resources sector are likely to chase smaller equity stakes, although this should generate higher volumes overall, some observers say. In terms of M&A, Chinese interest will remain keen in markets where resources have been developed and are easily accessible, such as Australia and Canada. But China has also begun to cut deals with resource-rich African nations under which it will fund the building of infrastructure in exchange for resources such as oil and copper Clean energy is also billed as a strong candidate for deals. China is now the world's leading producer of greenhouse emissions and is in desperate need of less-polluting power sources. But no less important is the fact that China regards clean energy as one of the most promising new sectors in which no country, has a huge advantage over the others. China thus feels it can leverage massive potential demand in its domestic market to become a global industry leader.

Technology of any kind will be a prime target of Chinese M&A. Sectors of particular note include car components, IT and micro-electronics. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers to original equipment manufacturers （OEMs） are now buying those OEMs to control the whole supply chain.

参考译文：

中国式兼并的未来

兼并的目标是什么？目前那些较大的兼并案例提供的数据掩盖了在一线交易中所显现的某种趋势。“就像进化论一样，差异化是种自然现象。”一家西方投资银行中国兼并部门的主任如是说。“在过去，政府会制定严格的申请程序和办理手续，但是现在，政府更以市场为导向。一些成功的大型公司正集中精力进行这种交易，但是越来越多的公司持观望态度。”这种情况将会涉及不同的部门以及不同的私人公司，还有更多的地区性国有企业，就像最近收购澳大利亚菲利普资源公司的扬州煤矿。

毫无疑问，中国企业将会继续寻找矿产等其它自然资源稳定可靠的供给方。在进入高更发展阶段之前，中国成为工业巨头的可能还需要这些燃料来支撑。同时，在资源方面的投资性质可能会有所变化。正如我们已经看到的，中国主权财富基金在资源交易方面变得越来越活跃。一些观察家预测，直接包含资源部门的公司可能会争夺更小的股权，但是这将会产生更大的总投资量。至于兼并和收购，中国的兴趣依然保持在那些资源已经被开发并且容易获得的市场上，比如澳大利亚和加拿大的资源市场。而且中国已经开始削减与资源丰富的非洲国家在基础设施建设上的交易，以换取诸如石油和铜等资源。

清洁能源被誉为强有力的候选交易。目前中国是世界上温室气体排放的主要国家之一，而且中国也亟需轻污染的能源资源。同样重要的事实是，中国认为清洁能源是未来最有发展前途的新部门，在这一方面，没有哪个国家比其它国家有难以超越的优势。因此，中国认为依靠国内市场巨大的潜在需求可以使其成为全球工业的领先者。

3. Law and economics （10分）

Law and economics, known as the economic analysis of law, stresses that markets are more efficient than courts. When possible, the legal system, according to the positive theory, will force a transaction into the market. When this is impossible, the legal system attempts to "mimic a market" and guess at what the parties would have desired if markets had been feasible.

The second characteristic of law and economics is its emphasis on incentives and people's responses to these incentives. For example, the purpose of damage payments in accident （tort） law is not to compensate injured parties, but rather to provide an incentive for potential injurers to take efficient （cost-justified）precautions to avoid causing the accident. Law and economics shares with other branches of economics the assumption that individuals are rational and respond to incentives. When penalties for an action increase, people will undertake less of that action. Law and economics is more likely than other branches of legal analysis to use empirical or statistical methods to measure these responses to incentives.

参考译文：

法律经济学

法律经济学被认为是对法律的经济学来分析，它强调市场比法庭的裁决更有效率。根据积极理论，如果条件可行，法律体系将会强制性地在市场上进行一种交易；如果条件不可行，法律体系将尝试用“模拟市场”的方法，来猜测如果市场可行的话，人们将会喜欢什么。

法律经济学第二个特点就是它强调激励以及人们对于激励的反应。比如，事故损害赔偿条例的目的并不是为了使受害方得到赔偿，而是给潜在的肇事者提个醒，让他们采取有效的预防措施来避免引起事故。法律经济学与经济学的其它分支共享同一个假设条件，那就是个人都是理性的，并且会对激励作出反应。当一种活动的罚款增加时，人们就会减少该种活动。相比于法律分析的其它分支机构，法律经济学更可能运用经验或者统计的方法来度量人们对

于激励的反应。

2010年专业英语（英译中，共计50分）

1. Market Structure and Innovation （20 分）

Which market conditions are optimal for effective and sustained innovation to occur? This is a question that has vexed economists and business academics for many years.

High levels of research and development spennding are frequently observed in oligopolistic markets, although this does not always translate itself into a fast pace of innovation.

The recent work of William Baumol （2002） provides support for oligopoly as market structure best suited for innovative behaviour Innovation is perceived as being "mandatory" for businesses that need to establish a cost-advantage or a significant lead in product quality over their rivals.

"As soon as quality competition and sales effort are admitted into the sacred precincts of theory, the price variable is ousted from its dominant position But in capitalist reality as distinguished from its textbook picture, it is not that kind of competition which counts but the competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.This kind of competition is as much more effective than the other as a bombardment is in comparison with Supernormal profits persist in the long-run in an oligopoly and these can be used to finance research and development.

参考译文：

市场结构与创新

什么样的市场条件最有利于促进有效的、持续的创新？多年来，这个问题让经济学家们和商业学院派伤透了脑筋。在寡头垄断市场，经常有大量的研发资金支出，但是这些并不是总能够转化成高速度的创新。

威廉·鲍莫尔最近的一项调查研究（2002）为寡头垄断的市场结构最适合创新的观点提供了有力的支持。创新被看作是企业的“义务”，企业需要以此来建立凌驾于对手之上的成本优势，或者产品质量上的巨大领先。

企业竞争优势是个神圣不可侵犯的领域，一旦此方面的理论开始考虑质量竞争或者促销活动对企业竞争优势的影响，那么价格变量从此就被驱逐出其主导地位。但是，在资本家看来，现实和教科书上的画面大相径庭，他们认为，真正的竞争在于拥有产品生产成本或者质量上的绝对优势，而且真正的竞争打击的不是现存企业的边际收益或者产量，而是打击他们存在的基础和方式。这种竞争方式就像用炮弹炸开一扇门一样，比其他任何竞争都要有效得多。在长期，寡头市场上存在超额利润，这些利润可以用来做研发的资金。

2. The oilier exit strategy （20 分）

Independent budget offices would help politicians' promises to be prudent tomorrow.

Economic policymakers across the rich world face two delicate balancing acts over the new few years. The first, involving monetary policy is being widely discussed and carefully planned by teams of techocrats Central bankers must keep

their balance-sheets big and interest rates low for long enough to prevent setting in, but they also have to be prepared to change things quickly to prevent inflation taking off. The second balancing act, involving fiscal policy, depends on politicians rather than specialists - and has, so far, been shamefully ill-planned. In the short term public largesse is a neccssary response to the slump in private demand. Budget deficits have ballooned-to and average of almost 10% of GDP across the big, rich countries - for good reasons, as governments have bolstered their banks and provided fiscal stimulus, and as ragging economies have sapped tax revenues. Withdrawing that support too fast would be foolish. Particularly after a banking bust premature fiscal tightening can push weak economies back into decline, as Japan's ill-timed consumption-tax increase in 1997 showed. The same risk holds today, particularly if the fiscal squeeze involves incentive-dulling tax increases.

But public proficularly if the fiscal squeeze involves incentive-dulling tax increases. IMF reckons the gross goverment debt of the rich world s big economies will reach an average of 115% of GDP by 2014 and continue to rise there after in some places, notably America. The weight of this debt will eventually push up interest rates, crowd out private investment and sap economic growth. Far nastier outcomes, from out-of-control inflation to outright default are conceivable.

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另一种退出战略

以后独立的预算部门有可能帮助政府官员作出将会更谨慎地解决财政开支问题的承诺。

最近几年来，发达国家的经济政策制定者面临两大棘手的平衡协调问题。第一个问题牵涉到货币政策的制定，众所周知，货币政策经常被广泛地讨论并且一些专业技术人员会进行仔细地研究。中央银行工作人员必须保持相当长时间内资产负债表足够大以及利率足够低，以预防通货紧缩的发生；同时他们必须做好充分的准备以快速阻止通货膨胀的爆发。第二个问题是关于财政政策制定，财政政策由政府官员而不是专家们制定，遗憾的是，一直以来，财政政策都没有好好地制定。

短期来看，面对私人部门需求的不景气，公众的慷慨是必然的反应。在发达国家，政府预算赤字迅速膨胀，平均到达了GDP总额的10%，为此政府找出了很多不错的理由，政府向银行系统投入了资金、提供了财政刺激，在经济萧条时减少了税收。那么快的撤出支持可是个愚蠢的行为，尤其是在一系列银行破产之后，过早的财政紧缩将会导致经济体再度回到衰退，1997年日本过早的减少消费税的增加就是先例。如今同样的风险依然存在，特别是在紧缩财政将导致刺激经济复苏的税收增加的情况下。

但是，公众不可能永远地过度消费。虽然目前经济开始复苏，但是世界货币基金组织依然预测到2014年发达经济体的政府总债务平均将达到GDP总额的115%，并且在一些地区，债务还会继续增长，尤其是美国。可以想象，从失控的通货膨胀到直接的债务违约，发达经济体将得到多少肮脏的利益。

3. Arbitration （10 分）

All disputes in connection with this contract or the execution thereof shall be sealed by negotiation between two parties. If no settlement can be reached, the case in dispute shall then be submitted for arbitration in the country of defendant in accordance with the arbitration regulations or the arbitration organization of the defendant country. The decision made by the arbitration organization shall be taken as final and binding upon both parties. The

arbitration expenses shall be borne by the losing party unless otherwise awarded by the arbitration organization.

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仲裁

所有与合同相关的纠纷或者执行过程中产生的争执都应由双方通过协商加以解决。如果协商未能解决，那么该案件将提交到被告方国家的仲裁机构，依据被告方国家仲裁机构相关的法律法规予以解决。由仲裁机构判决的结构是最终结果并且对当事双方都具有法律效力。除非仲裁结构另有说明外，仲裁过程中所发生的费用由败诉方承担。

2009年专业英语（英译中，3小题，共40分，第1题12分，第2、3题各14分）1．Strong economic fundamentals in many key economies contributed to stronger investor confidence worldwide． General government deficits decreased in the United States, the European Union and in Japan and inflationary pressures were contained． A high level of global monetary liquidity combined with a low level of real interest rates contributed to a rally on global stock markets． Stock markets in emerging economies again recorded much faster growth than those in developed economies． Increased investor confidence in emerging markets is also reflected in the sharply reduced spread in interest margins between emerging market bonds and those of US government bonds．（12分）

许多重要经济体强劲的经济基础对加强世界投资者的信心做出了重要贡献，美国、欧盟和日本政府的赤字普遍下降，通货膨胀得到了遏制。全球性货币的高流动性加上低水平的实际利率，促成了全球股市的反弹。新兴经济体股票市场再一次比发达国家快速增长。在新兴市场上，投资者信心的增强还反应在新兴市场债权与美国政府债券之间利息差的锐减上。

2．The financial crisis that first erupted with the U．S．subprime mortgage collapse in August 2007 has deepened further in the past six months and entered a tumultuous new phase in September． The impact has been felt across the global financial system, including in emerging markets to an increasing

extent． Intensifying solvency concerns have led to emergency resolutions of major U．S． and European financial institutions and have badly shaken confidence． In response, the U．S． and European authorities have taken extraordinary measures aimed at stabilizing markets, including massive liquidity provision, prompt intervention to resolve weak institutions, extension of deposit insurance, and recent U．S． legislation to use public funds to purchase troubled assets from banks．（14分）

金融危机首先爆发于2007年8月美国的次级贷款加深，并在之后的6个月继续加深，随之于2008年的9月份进入到一个动荡的新阶段。包括新兴市场在内的全球金融体系都深受其影响，并且影响与日俱增。主权债务的进一步加剧让美国和欧洲金融机构不得不采取紧急措施，这又进一步降低了消费者和投资者的信心。为了应对这种情况，美国和欧洲政府为了稳定市场采取了一系列临时措施，包括大规模流动性供给、加大对低效率机构的干预、扩展存款保险的范围等。最近，美国还通过立法允许使用公众基金来购买银行的不良资产。

3． The multilateral trading system is confronted by considerable challenges, of a short-term nature in relation to incomplete negotiations, but more fundamentally in relation to its continuing role as an institution vested with the legitimacy necessary to mediate international trade relations． The balance of

economic power and the focus of national interests is shifting among nations． Do governments see viable alternatives to the inclusiveness of the universalist perspective implicit in today’s multila teral trading system? If not, careful reflection is needed on how to nurture and manage the multilateral trading system in the interests of shared benefits． The future of the WTO depends on how far governments value the contributions such an institution can make．（14分）多变贸易体系正面临着相当大的挑战。从短期来看，问题在于不完全协商带来的矛盾，但是从更重要的层面上讲，问题就上升到多变贸易体系能否继续执行其作为协调国际间贸易关系的合法机构的职能。提高经济综合实力还是保护本国利益的权衡使得各国的经济重点正在发生变化。如今多边贸易体系要求用全球化的视角来实现包容性增长，各国政府能否找到替代这一增长的适用方案？如果不能，那就要对如何完善和管理多边贸易体系进行仔细地研究，以实现各经济体利益的多赢。而未来世界贸易组织的发展就依赖于各国政府怎样看待此机构带来的贡献。

2007年专业英语试题：英译中，共40分，每题20分。要求：中文译文字体工整、中文措辞及标点符号准确。

1．Prospects for a soft landing of the world economy remain in sight．On the international financial markets，volatility and interest rates have come down after turbulence earlier this year，as oil prices have receded from earlier highs．These conditions may moderate the anticipated cyclical slowdown in the world economy led by an anticipated US slowdown. While prospects for a soft landing remain good，risks of a sharper correction also remain．The world economy benefits from recent vigor in Europe and Asia，where growth appears to have become less export-dependent and more led by domestic demand．However，Europe，Japan，and the rest of the world including China wil1 be affected by the slowdown in the US that seems increasingly in the making，and it remains to be seen how vigorous the world economy can grow without the US as an engine．An orderly soft landing in the US would mean lower inflation and interest rates in the US，and thus be good for financial stability around the world．However，there are several global risks．On the economic front，disorderly adjustment of the still large“global imbalances”一large current account deficits in some countries，including the US，and large surpluses，including China and oil producer countries－remains a key risk．Other risk factors include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the US．Additional risks stems from the possible escalation of several geo-political conflicts．Materialization of these risks may lead to financial turmoi1 and exchange rate volatility，tighter monetary conditions and higher world interest rates，and lower global growth．

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世界经济软着陆前景依然看好。随着国际金融市场上原油价格的下降，波动率和利率也在经历了年初的波动后回落。这些条件有可能缓和由美国经济放缓的预期而引发的世界经济的周期性放缓预期。尽管世界经济软着陆前景看好，但依然存在着要以更激烈的手段对失衡进行纠正的风险。近年来欧洲和亚洲地区的经济增长不像以前那么依赖于出口，而是更多地依赖于内需拉动，对世界经济产生有益的影响。然而，欧洲、日本以及包括中国在内的世界其他地区经济将会受到美国日益明显的经济放缓趋势的影响，此外，对于失去美国这个经济引擎后，世界经济增长将表现出怎样的活力我们也只能拭目以待。美国的有序软着陆可能意

味着其国内通货膨胀率和利率的降低，这将有助于维持世界范围内金融秩序的稳定。然而，同时存在着一些全球性风险。在经济层面上，全球贸易仍然不平衡：包括美国在内的一些国家的经常账户出现巨额逆差；包括中国和一些石油大国在内的国家经常账户持续出现高额顺差，对此进行的无序调整是一个重要风险。其他的风险因素包括美国经济放缓速度大大超出人们的预期。某些国家地区之间的地缘政治冲突逐步升级也引发了一些附加风险。这些风险一旦具体化，有可能会导致金融动荡、汇率浮动、银根紧缩，世界利率升高进而导致世界经济增长速度放缓。

2．The rapid growth of intra-East Asian trade over the last decade naturally raises the question how far such trade may protect East Asia from a downturn in exports to the US or other extra-regional markets．The first point to note is that it is East Asian economies other than China that have experienced the fastest growth in intra-regional exports，principally to China．China，on the other hand，has become the East Asian economy with the highest orientation to the US market，while its intra-Asian exports have remained steady at around 16 percent. The rising export-orientation of other East Asian economies towards China mainly reflects a changing regional division of labor over the last decade，with the emergence of China as a central assembler and exporter of finished manufactures to global markets outside Asia，and of other East Asian economies as suppliers of specialized capital goods，parts，component and other intermediates to China．China’s demand for these inputs from the rest of East Asia is therefore driven to a large extent by demand for its exports to the major developed economy markets outside emerging East Asia．Something like two thirds of intra-Asian trade gets incorporated into exports shipped to extra-regional markets．As a result the growth on intra-Asian trade tends to be highly correlated with that of extra-regional trade．A rough calculation suggests that net of such intermediates trade East Asian intra-regional trade amounts to some 14 percent of the total，with Japan，the US and Europe respectively comprising 14，25 and 22 percent of East Asian exports. A generalized decline in extra-regional markets would certainly have a strong impact on East Asian exports．参考译文：

过去十年间，东亚地区内部贸易飞速增长，自然会让人们产生这样的疑问：这种地区内部贸易的增长究竟能在多大程度上保护东亚经济，使其免受美国和其他区域外市场出口减少的影响？首先要提出的一点是：地区内部出口增长速度最快的是东亚经济体而非中国，这些国家出口的方向主要是中国。另一方面，中国是所有东亚国家中出口到美国最多的国家，而中国对东亚地区内部的出口一直稳定地保持在16%左右。在过去的十年间，越来越多的东亚地区国家将中国定为出口市场，向中国出口专业的资本商品、零件、元件，和其他中间产品，而中国成为主要的产品装配中心和出口中心，将制成品销往亚洲外部的国际市场，这是一种新型的地区内部劳动力分工模式。由此可见，中国对东亚其他国家的资源进口需求很大程度上是由其向亚洲以外发达国家的出口需求所驱动的。大约有三分之二的亚洲内部贸易货物最终以出口产品的形式被运往区外市场。因此，亚洲地区内部贸易增长越来越依赖于地区外部贸易的增长。据一项粗略计算表明，在所有出口产品中，东亚地区中间产品净内部贸易量占贸易总量的14%左右，而销往日本，美国和欧洲的出口产品分别占到14%、25%和22%。地区外部市场需求的疲软必对东亚出口经济造成重大影响。

2006年专业英语试题：英译汉，共40分，每题20分。要求：汉语译文字体工整、措

辞及标点符号准确。

1. Assessing the implications of a major economy-wide reform such as that involved in China’s WTO accession is inherently difficult. The experience with other trade events such as the formation of NAFTA suggests that the actual overall impact will be much greater than suggested by ex ante modeling, largely as a result of productivity and other changes that are hard for models to capture. Analysis indicates that China’s clothing production could more than double, and its textile production expand by nearly 50 percent, as a result of WTO accession combined with the proposed phase-out of quotas as part of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. These estimates, however, omit some important potential elements of trade policy, namely, the application of antidumping and safeguards measures against China-and the possibility that China itself will increasingly apply such measures. One feature of the accession agreement is the Product-specific Transitional Safeguard Provisions, lasting over a 12-year period, which may be applied to China by any member and may then trigger actions against the diversion of Chinese exports to other markets, with special textile safeguards for three years. Similarly, as regards antidumping provisions, China will potentially remain vulnerable for up to 15 years to non-market economy provisions that dramatically increase the probability of dumping being found and the relevant antidumping duties being applied. China’s own increased use of antidumping and safeguard measures would be legal and consistent with the rules-focused approach to WTO implementation.(20分)

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评估一项重大的经济改革（比如中国加入世贸组织）的意义有其固有的困难，还有其他的一些贸易事件，比如北美自由贸易区的成立，这些事件都表明它们产生的实际影响要远远大于经济模型所预测的结果，这主要是因为经济模型很难估定生产力和其他的一些因素的变化。分析表明，随着中国的入世，成员方将按照《纺织品和服装协议》的规定分阶段取消对中国纺织品和服装的配额限制，中国的服装生产将增加两倍多，纺织品的生产也将增长近一半。然而，这些估测忽视了贸易政策里面的一些重要的潜在因素，即，成员国会针对中国应用反倾销和保障措施，中国本身也会增加应用这些措施的可能性。入世协议的一个特征就是《关于商品进出口的特别保障措施条例》的签订，该条例将持续超过12年之久，可以被任何成员方应用，再加上三年的《关于纺织品的特别保障措施》的实施，这些都将加强其它成员国针对作为“世界工厂”的中国采取措施。与之相似地，还有反倾销协议，该协议意味着中国仍将易受长达15年之久的非市场经济体规定伤害的危险，它将极大的增加对中国进行反倾销调查和被征收反倾销税的可能性。中国自主地增加反倾销和保障措施的应用也将是合法的，并且与贯彻实施WTO 条款相一致。

2. By almost all accounts, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been one of the major success stories of the past 10 years. Starting from a base of less than $19 billion in 1990, the stock of FDI in China rose to over $300 billion at the end of 1999. Ranked by the stock of inward FDI, China thus has become the leader among all developing nations and second among the APEC nations (only the United States holds a larger stock of inward FDI). China’s FDI consists largely of greenfield investment, while inward FDI in the United States by contrast has been generated more by takeover of existing enterprises than by new establishment. The majority of FDI in China has originated from elsewhere in developing Asia (not

including Japan). Hong Kong, now a largely self-governing “special autonomous region” of China itself, has been the largest source of record. The dominance of Hong Kong, however, is somewhat illusory in that much FDI nominally from Hong Kong in reality is from elsewhere. Some of what is listed as Hong Kong-source FDI in China is, in fact, investment by domestic Chinese that is “round-tripped” through H ong Kong. Other FDI in China listed as Hong Kong in origin is in reality from various western nations and Taiwan that is placed into China via Hong Kong intermediaries. Alas, no published records exist to indicate exactly how much FDI in China that is nominally from Hong Kong is in fact attributable to other nations. (20分) 参考译文：

总的来看，中国境内的国外直接投资已经是该国近10年来最成功的事件之一。以1990年为基期，从不到190亿美元增加到99年年底的超过3000亿美元。按照国外直接投资的国内存量排名，中国在发展中国家位居第一，并且在亚太国家位列第二（仅次于美国）。中国的国外直接投资主要是绿地投资的形式，相比之下，美国国内的国外直接投资的主要形式是对现有企业的并购，而不是新建企业（即绿地投资）。中国的国外直接投资主要来源于亚洲的其他发展中经济体（不包括日本），香港——中国现有的高度自制的特别行政区——是其中的最大来源地。然而，名义上来源于香港的国外直接投资实际上却来源于其他经济体，香港本土对此都不怎么理解。中国的一些列明来源于香港的国外直接投资事实上却是来源于内地的周转于香港的往返投资。中国的其他一些来源于香港的国外直接投资事实上是来源于不同的西方国家以及台湾地区，它们只不过是途径香港，把香港作为中转站而已。哎，并没有可信的记录可以准确地说明中国究竟有多少名义上是来源于香港的国外直接投资实际上却要归功于其他国家。