2018年在线英语市场发展趋势研究报告

2018年在线英语市场发展趋势研究报告
2018年在线英语市场发展趋势研究报告

2018年在线英语市场发展趋势研究报告

2018年10月

目录

前言 (1)

1、在线教育行业:新一代父母驱动2180亿在线教育市场 (2)

1.1、在线教育发展概况:历经远程教育、网校录播、直播交互三阶段 (3)

1.2、在线教育宏观背景:P(政治)E(经济)S(社会)T(技术)四维背景 (8)

1.3、在线教育行业格局:内容类为主,工具类、平台类为辅 (15)

2、在线少儿英语赛道:重视英语应用催生在线教育最成熟赛道 (17)

2.1、在线少儿英语领跑:发展最快、最受资本青睐 (18)

2.2、为什么是在线少儿英语?市场有需求、政策有鼓励、公司有布局 (22)

2.3、在线少儿英语赛道格局:一对一为主,四大类子赛道 (32)

3、四家头部玩家对比:要素产出分析框架拆解四大玩家 (35)

3.1、要素:外教、教学、价格、营销、技术五大要素带动用户增长 (37)

3.2、产出:不同要素投入导致不同用户规模和收入规模 (45)

4、案例分析:VIPKID VS 51TALK,规模最大玩家VS最早上市玩家 (47)

4.1、外教:北美外教VS菲律宾外教 (49)

4.2、价格:153元VS57元 (56)

4.3、营销:依赖转介绍VS依赖电话营销 (58)

4.4、用户&收入:50万用户50亿收入VS17万用户14亿收入 (64)

图表目录

图表1:2017年中国在线教育市场规模达2180亿 (4)

图表2:2017年底中国在线教育用户规模达1.6亿人 (4)

图表3:2017年底中国在线教育用户平均每人每年消费1405元 (5)

图表4:在线教育行业的发展历经三大阶段 (7)

图表5:“PEST”分析法透视在线教育发展宏观背景 (8)

图表6:2010年至今在线教育行业相关的重要政策重点随时间变迁 (9)

图表7:城乡居民收入以快于GDP增速的速度快速增长 (10)

图表8:随着收入水平的提高,居民支出向教育文化娱乐倾斜 (11)

图表9:教育文化娱乐服务支出同比增速快于其他支出 (12)

图表10:1984年至1998年出生的人步入生育率高峰阶段 (13)

图表11:1999年大学扩招之后接受本科以上教育的人比重大幅上升 (13)

图表12:家长接送孩子上培训班费时费力成为线下教育最大痛点 (15)

图表13:在线教育行业格局:内容类为主,工具类、平台类为辅 (17)

图表14:2016年在线少儿英语用户规模达321.5万人 (19)

图表15:2018年发生的大额融资案:在线少儿英语融资48.8亿,占22% (20)

图表16:2018年在线少儿英语是在线教育行业最受资本青睐的赛道 (21)

图表17:在线少儿英语的消费人群主要是中高收入家庭 (23)

图表18:在线少儿英语的消费人群主要是高学历家庭 (23)

图表19:在线少儿英语学员家庭花费意愿强 (24)

图表20:2016年赴美接受K12阶段教育的中国留学生达3.6万人 (25)

图表21:15.5%的家长让孩子学英语的目的是出国 (26)

图表22:42.4%的中国家长想让孩子高中及以下年龄出国 (27)

图表23:中国家长希望子女能提前至3-5岁开始学习英语 (28)

图表24:未来家长希望孩子通过线上为主、线下为辅的方式学英语 (29)

图表25:在线少儿英语在在线教育体系中的位置 (33)

图表26:在线少儿英语赛道格局:一对一为主,小班、动画/AI跟读、双师课堂为辅 (33)

图表27:在线少儿英语公司融资历史:一对一最先成熟,竞争最为激烈,最受资本青睐 (34)

图表28:要素产出分析框架:教师、教学、价格、营销、技术五要素带动用户增长 (37)

图表29:师资是家长在选择培训机构时最看重的方面 (39)

图表30:四家公司外教对比:外教来源地、外教是否固定等方面区别较大 (39)

图表31:四家公司教学对比:教学方面相对相似,以外教一对一为主,教材来自引进+自研 (41)

图表32:四家公司价格对比:51Talk的菲律宾外教价格最低廉,DaDa英语的欧美外教价格最低 (42)

图表33:四家公司营销对比:转介、电话销售、网络大V各有侧重 (43)

图表34:四家公司在地铁和公交站投放广告 (43)

图表35:四家公司技术对比:均致力于打造流畅、稳定的在线教育体验.44图表36:四家公司产出对比:五要素导致了不同的市场定位、用户规模和收入规模 (46)

图表37:要素产出分析框架:VIPKID和51Talk在外教、价格、营销的差异导致用户收入差异 (47)

图表38:2018年8月VIPKID外教规模突破6万 (49)

图表39:VIPKID的北美外教分布:集中于德克萨斯州和美国东部 (50)

图表40:VIPKID外教70%有五年以上教龄 (51)

图表41:VIPKID外教均拥有本科以上学历,硕博学历占32% (51)

图表42:73.6%的家长希望外教来自北美国家 (52)

图表43:2017年51Talk共有约15000名外教老师 (54)

图表44:51Talk80%的外教来自菲律宾 (55)

图表45:为什么51Talk钟爱菲律宾外教?成本仅为欧美外教的三分之一56图表46:51Talk购买课程有两种套餐:固定每月扣15次课时,或自由选择每月上课次数 (57)

图表47:VIPKID赞助了多档综艺节目和影视剧 (58)

图表48:51Talk销售过程分为四步:远程营销人员、免费试用老师、课程顾问、客户经理 (59)

图表49:51Talk与销售和营销相关的全职人员占比45.5% (60)

图表50:51Talk赞助了多档综艺节目 (61)

图表51:2017年51Talk费用共计11亿元,导致净亏损5.8亿 (62)

图表52:2017年51Talk销售和营销费用达6.6亿元 (62)

图表53:2017年51Talk获客成本高达3809元 (63)

图表54:电话销售以及在线和移动营销是51Talk销售费用最大的来源 (64)

图表55:VIPKID的产品矩阵:对在线少儿英语四大类别全覆盖,还延伸至在线少儿中文一对一 (66)

图表56:2017年51Talk付费用户有17.3万人,增速大幅放缓 (68)

图表57:51Talk的K12学生占付费用户比重升至74.0% (68)

图表58:51Talk的学生构成从在职成人为主转为K12学生为主 (68)

图表59:51Talk2017年客单价为8200元,增速稳定在25%左右 (69)

图表60:2017年51Talk的GMV达14.1亿元,增速放缓至63.4% (70)

图表61:K12业务对51Talk总收入贡献度一路攀升至2017年的75% (70)

图表62:51Talk的产品矩阵:向美教小班课和To B双师课堂延伸 (72)

前言

本文使用PEST分析模型解构在线教育行业成长动因,未来前景持续向好。通过对在线少儿英语主要玩家的商业模式对比分析,总结出教师、教学、价格、营销、技术五要素的分析模型,为行业提供研究借鉴。

与传统线下教育不同,在线教育通过线上轻资产运营,打破教育资源在时间、空间上的局限,具有一定的边际成本递减效应。通过使用“PEST”分析模型解构在线教育行业成长动因:(1)P(政策环境):政策鼓励互联网+教育。(2)E (经济环境):教育需求是刚需,相关支出占居民收入比例稳步提升。(3)S(社会环境):80后、90后成为新一代父母,受教育程度高,对互联网教育接受程度更高。(4)T(技术环境):父母带孩子参加线下培训费时费力,而在线教育技术持续升级,产品不断迭代,品类更加丰富。上述因素共同推动在线教育市场快速增长,2017年中国在线教育市场规模达2,180亿元,同比增长36.2%。

在线教育玩家众多,行业格局初显。线下教育培训公司受制地理位置和辐射半径,导致竞争格局高度分散;而在线教育兼具教育、互联网属性,网络效应强,头部公司依靠融资烧钱,快速获取市场,市场集中度更高。根据玩家性质我们将在线教育行业分为三大类子行业:内容类、工具类、平台类,其中内容类在线教育是玩家数量最多,发展最为蓬勃的子行业。

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