2014年一季度工业报告(高力国际)

Research & Forecast Report

MARKET OVERVIEW

Shanghai’s industrial property market was stable in 1Q14, despite a slowdown in industrial activity reflected in both China’s official purchasing managers index (PMI) and the private HSBC PMI. In contrast to these indices, the Logistics Prosperity Index, calculated by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, showed a pickup in February to 51.9 after a reading of 51.5 in January. Sustained demand for high quality logistics property and limited supply led the average rent for industrial properties to increase slightly in 1Q14. Domestic consumption continued to underpin demand for logistics property, with most new tenants during this quarter coming from the third-party logistics sector. Other headline news included GLP’s announcement of a planned USD2.5 billion investment, and Alibaba’s investment of USD240 million in Haier to expand its footprint in China’s logistics sector. SUPPLY

Two high quality logistics facilities were launched in Shanghai in 1Q14, with one each in Qingpu and Waigaoqiao. GLP Park Liantang, located in Shanghai Qingpu Liantang Industrial Park, consists of three stand-alone warehouses with a total GFA of approximately 57,000 sqm. In Waigaoqiao Logistics Park Phase II, a 44,000 sqm double-story standard warehouse was launched during 1Q14. Several other facilities are currently under construction in this area, though are likely to be built-to-suit developments and will not impact the market’s effective supply.

The majority of new industrial property scheduled to complete in 2014 will be located in Pudong, given the area’s relative availability of land (compared to Puxi), well-developed infrastructure and proximity to Shanghai’s ports. Of an estimated 1,371,000 sqm of total new supply scheduled for 2014, 65% is in Pudong. DEMAND

Demand for warehousing space continued to outpace supply in Shanghai, underpinned by domestic consumption. New leases during 1Q14 primarily came from companies in e-commerce, retail or the related third-party logistics (3PL) sector.市场概览

尽管２０１４年第一季度中国官方ＰＭＩ及汇丰ＰＭＩ所反映的工业活动均有所放缓，季内上海工业物业市场仍表现平稳。与这些指标相反，由中国物流与采购联合会测算的中国物流业景气指数在一月读数达５１．５之后于二月小幅上升至５１．９。

对于优质物流物业的持续需求以及有限供应使得平均租金于２０１４年第一季度小幅上升。国内消费持续支撑着对于物流物业的需求，同时，季内大部分新租户来自第三方物流。其它瞩目事件包括：普洛斯宣布其高达２５亿美元的投资计划以及阿里巴巴向海尔投资２．４亿美元以进一步布局中国物流市场。

供应

季内，上海共计有两个优质物流物业入市，分别位于青浦和外高桥。位于上海青浦练塘工业园的普洛斯练塘物流园由三栋独立的仓库组成，总建筑面积约５７，０００平方米。上海外高桥物流园二期内，一栋双层的标准仓库于季内入市，总建筑面积约４４，０００平方米。位于同区域的其它若干个物流物业当前正处施工阶段，但预计其可能均系定制项目，并不会影响市场的有效供应。

鉴于浦东较之浦西有更多土地供应、完备的基础建设以及邻近上海本地港口，大部分计划于２０１４年内竣工的工业物业将坐落于浦东。在估计约１，３７１，０００平方米的年内新增供应总量中，约６５％的供应面积位于浦东。

需求

在国内消费的支撑下，对于上海物流仓储面积的需求仍超过供应。季内，新租赁交易之租户主要来自电商、零售业及与此相关的第三方物流。

SHANGHAI | INduStrIAl 1Q 2014

上海工业市场

Figure 2 Average Logistics Rent in Shanghai 图２上海物流物业平均租金

Figure 1 Average Logistics Rent in Shanghai by Submarket 图１上海各子市场物流物业平均租金

Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部

Two leasing transactions in the Pudong airport area were recorded during this quarter: Shanghai Rokin Logistics’ lease of 17,772 sqm in Goodman Pudong International Airport Logistics Park Phase II; and a global 3PL ’s renewal of a 4,290 sqm warehouse in the Pudong Airport Customs Region.

Nanhui and Fengxian continued to have the largest vacant area in 1Q14, given their distance from downtown. However, these areas, which are closely related to the import/export market, may benefit from the newly launched Shanghai FTZ and government plans to increase the throughput capacity of Yangshan port.

Global Logistics Property (GLP) was particularly active in the Yangtze River Delta region in 1Q14. The company announced several leasing transactions closed in this quarter including: Deppon Logistics’ lease of 16,000 sqm in GLP Park Yangzhou ETDZ; the lease of 15,000 sqm to https://www.360docs.net/doc/f011787873.html,, an online retailer, at GLP Park Suzhou; Best Logistics’ leases in GLP parks in Changzhou, Nantong and Yangzhou totaling 42,000 sqm; the lease of 7,000 sqm in GLP Park Dongjing by a pharmaceutical company, and the leases of a combined 22,000 sqm in GLP Park Wangting (Suzhou) by a hypermarket chain and a domestic 3PL, respectively. In addition, Goodman Lishui Distribution Centre’s Phase I (approximately 43,000 sqm) was completed in Nanjing in March, which will be used for Deppon Logistics’ regional distribution centre for eastern China. The company leased approximately 13,000 sqm in Goodman Lujia Logistics Center to a 3PL serving an international fashion brand. Zhejiang Cainiao Networks, a subsidiary of Alibaba Group, leased 54,880 sqm at Goodman Suzhou West Logistics Centre.

RENT

Average rent for non-bonded standard logistics facilities in 1Q14 increased 1.0% q-o-q from RMB1.20 psm per day in 4Q13 to RMB1.21 psm per day. By geographic area, rent in Pudong remained at the highest rental level, increasing 2.1% q-o-q from RMB1.40 psm per day to RMB1.43 psm per day. The increase was the result of certain developers reacting to strong demand and the above-average rent at the new supply in Waigaoqiao.

In Putuo and Minhang districts, the average rent increased 1.3% q-o-q to RMB1.40 psm per day and 2.4% q-o-q to RMB1.28 psm per day, respectively, given strong demand but a lack of supply. 浦东机场区域于季内录得两宗租赁交易：上海荣庆物流于嘉民浦东机场物流园二期承租约１７，７７２平方米；某国际第三方物流在浦东机场海关监管库续租约４，２９０平方米。季内，由于离市区距离较远南汇和奉贤市场仍拥有最大空置面积。然而，由于南汇和奉贤的物流市场与进出口市场息息相关，所以它们将得益于上海自贸区的设立以及政府对于扩大洋山港吞吐量的规划。季内，普洛斯在长三角区域尤为活跃，其公布了若干个于本季达成的租赁交易：德邦物流于普洛斯扬州经济技术开发区物流园承租约１６，０００平方米；网络零售商兰亭集势于苏州普洛斯物流园承租约１５，０００平方米；百世物流分别于普洛斯常州、南通及扬州物流园承租共约４２，０００平方米；某医药企业于普洛斯洞泾物流园承租约７，０００平方米；某大型连锁超市品牌及某国内第三方物流均入驻普洛斯苏州望亭物流园，租赁面积合约２２，０００平方米。此外，嘉民南京溧水物流园一期于今年三月竣工并被交付于德邦物流用作其华东区域分拨中心，总建筑面积约４３，０００平方米。服务于某国际时装品牌的一家第三方物流亦于季内租赁了嘉民陆家物流中心约１３，０００平方米。此外，阿里巴巴集团子公司浙江菜鸟网络于嘉民西苏州物流中心承租约５４，８８０平方米。

租金

２０１４年第一季度上海标准非保税物流物业平均租金从上季度人民币１．２０元每天每平方米环比上涨１．０％，至本季度人民币１．２１元每天每平方米。按地理区域划分，浦东租金水平仍最高，并且从上季度人民币１．４０元每天每平方米环比上涨２．１％，至本季度人民币１．４３元每天每平方米。浦东租金之上涨主要因为某些发展商鉴于强劲需求而作出的调价以及外高桥新增供应高于平均租金水平所致。

季内，鉴于强劲需求及缺乏供应，普陀区和闵行区的平均租金环比分别上涨１．３％及２．４％，至人民币１．４０元每天每平方米及人民币

１．２８元每天每平方米。

2Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2014 | Industrial | Colliers International

Figure 4 Average Workshop Rent in Shanghai

Figure 3 Average Workshop Rent in Shanghai by Submarket

Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部

MANUFACTURING PROPERTY MARKET Shanghai manufacturing property market was stable in 1Q14. The average rent for standard manufacturing property in Shanghai was essentially flat at RMB0.89 psm per day (up 0.1% q-o-q). Rent for manufacturing property was highest in Pudong at RMB1.25 psm per day followed by Minhang district at RMB1.10 psm per day. In Jiading district, the average rent increased by 1.2% q-o-q to RMB0.88 psm per day due to limited supply.

Notable leasing transactions and new set-up activities in 1Q14 included: the lease of approximately 8,600 sqm in a workshop in Waigaoqiao FTZ by a precision machinery manufacturer; Xerium Technologies’ construction of a new plant in Kunshan Bacheng Industry Zone with an initial investment of approximately USD35 to USD40 million; and the construction of both Porsche’s R&D Waigaoqiao Project and Xin Development Faw-Volkswagen’s R&D Facility in the Waigaoqiao microelectronics industry base, totaling approximately 17,667 sqm.

INVESTMENT

The investment market for logistics property continued to have strong momentum, begun in 2013. In 1Q14, certain large developers announced expansion plans for 2014 and large e-commerce companies made new investments in the logistics property market. In February, GLP announced that it had signed a strategic partnership agreement with a consortium of Chinese investors, including the Bank of China, for an investment of up to USD2.5 billion, which the group will use for the expansion in China’s logistics property market.The Yupei Group announced that it planned approximately one million sqm of new logistics developments in China, following the company’s 3Q13 announcement that it had entered a partnership with the Carlyle Group and The Townsend Group.

Major e-commerce companies continued to show their interest in the logistics property market as well, with both Alibaba and Tencent announcing investments: Alibaba’s USD240 million investment in Goodaymart, a logistics-focused subsidiary of Haier, and Tencent’s planned USD195 million investment in China South City, a Hong Kong-listed developer with industrial and logistics experience.厂房物业市场

季内，上海厂房物业市场表现平稳。上海标准厂房物业平均租金基本稳定在人民币０．８９元每天每平方米（环比微涨０．１％）。浦东平均租金最高，达人民币１．２５元每天每平方米，其后是闵行区，平均租金为人民币１．１０元每天每平方米。由于供应有限，嘉定区平均租金环比上涨１．２％至人民币０．８８元每天每平方米。

季内，瞩目租赁交易以及新设厂房活动包括：某精密仪器制造商于外高桥保税区厂房承租约８，６００平方米；Ｘｅｒｉｕｍ技术有限公司于昆山巴城工业园投资约３，５００至４，０００万美元，用以设立其新厂房；坐落于外高桥微电子产业带的保时捷外高桥中心项目以及新发展一汽大众研发楼及车间建设项目目前已处于施工阶段，总建筑面积约１７，６６７平方米。

投资

上海物流物业投资市场保持着自２０１３年以来的强劲动能。季内，某些大型发展商宣布了其２０１４年扩张计划。此外，大型电商于物流物业市场亦有新的投资活动。普洛斯于二月宣布已与包括中银集团在内的中国投资者财团签署战略合作协议，并获得最高达２５亿美元的投资。普洛斯会将该投资用于其在中国物流物业市场上的扩张。继２０１３年第三季度宇培集团宣布其与凯雷集团和Ｔｈｅ　Ｔｏｗｎｓｅｎｄ　Ｇｒｏｕｐ的合作之后，又于今年二月宣布计划在全国范围开发约１００万平方米的新物流物业。

与此同时，伴随着阿里巴巴和腾讯于季内公布的投资交易，主流电商企业亦相继呈现出其对于物流物业市场的兴趣。阿里巴巴向海尔集团旗下物流子公司日日顺物流投资约２．４亿美元，以及腾讯以总投资约１．９５亿美元入股华南城，该发展商系香港上市企业，具备工业及物流物业开发经验。

In the industrial land market, approximately 740,000 sqm of land for industrial use was sold in 1Q14. The majority of the land was located in Qingpu District (36%) and Songjiang District (18%). These transactions led the average price for industrial land to increase by 15% q-o-q to RMB993 psm (up 33.5% y-o-y), though the average accommodation price decreased 12% q-o-q to RMB 466 psm (up 4.3% y-o-y).

OUTLOOK

The 2013 launch of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and continued growth in domestic consumption are expected to support Shanghai’s industrial property market in the coming quarters. Though policy details about the new free trade zone remained incomplete, expectations about their potential effects has already led to the start of repositioning at existing, below-standard facilities.

The rise in domestic consumption, including the spectacular growth of China’s e-commerce industry in the last five years, will underpin demand from retailers and related sectors such as third-party logistics (3PL). In the long-term, the recent investments by Alibaba and Tencent may signal a commitment to the logistics property market by major e-commerce companies.

These fundamentals, coupled with the limits on available land, will favour developers and landlords, and new supply is expected to be fully occupied in the short-term, despite the expected launch of more than 300,000 sqm of new logistics supply in Shanghai and nearby cities in 2Q14. In the long-term, access to land will remain restricted; the Shanghai’s government February announcement that it will strictly control the land quota for industrial use reinforced this. The impact of the new announcement was not immediately clear; however it is expected that secondhand industrial sites within Shanghai and those on the provincial sides of the Shanghai municipal border will be of greater interest to developers.

季内，工业土地市场土地销售面积合约７４０，０００平方米。大部分地块位于青浦区和松江区，出让面积分别占比３６％和１８％。这些交易致使土地均价环比上涨１５％，至人民币９９３元每平方米（同比上涨３３．５％），而平均楼板价环比下跌１２％至人民币４６６元每平方米（同比上涨４．３％）。

展望

２０１３年中国（上海）自由贸易试验区的设立以及持续增长的国内消费预计将于未来三个季度内持续支撑上海工业物业市场。尽管自贸区政策细则尚未完备，但是对其潜在影响的预期已然使得现有较低标准的物业开始了其重新定位。

国内消费的增长，包括过去五年中国电子商务产业倍受瞩目的增长，将会支撑起来自于零售商以及相关行业（第三方物流等）的物流需求。此外，近期阿里巴巴及腾讯的投资标志着主流的电商企业在未来长期内将会深入物流物业市场。

鉴于上述这些基本面加之有限的土地供应，发展商及业主将从中受益，同时，尽管上海及周边城市或将有逾３００，０００平方米的新增物流供应于２０１４年第二季度入市，这些新增供应预计会在短期内被全部租赁。长期内，工业土地获取将持续受限；上海政府于二月宣布将严控工业土地配额的举措将更进一步收紧土地供应。虽然新公告所产生的影响尚未明晰，但上海及其周边省份的二手工业土地预计将愈加受到发展商们的青睐。

rs International.

accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

lina Wong MRICS, CCIM Managing director

East and Southwest China Investment Services | China +86 21 6141 3600

lina.wong@https://www.360docs.net/doc/f011787873.html, Carlby Xie MSc, MRICS

director | research | China +86 21 6141 3590

carlby.xie@https://www.360docs.net/doc/f011787873.html,

Colliers International | Shanghai

16F Hong Kong New World tower 300 Huai Hai Zhong road Shanghai, 200021 PrC tEl +86 21 6141 3688