外文文献翻译封面格式及要求(模版)

毕业论文外文文献翻译

年级专业：

2011级国际经济与贸易 姓

名：学 号：附 件：

Challenges and Opportunities

备注：（注意：备注页这一整页的内容都不需要打印，看懂了即可）

1.从所引用的与毕业设计（论文）内容相近的外文文献中选择一篇或一部分进行翻译（不少于3000实词）；

2.外文文献翻译的装订分两部分，第一部分为外文文献，页码从正文开始到英文结束；第二部分为该外文文献的中文翻译，页码重新从正文开始到结束，中英文两部分之间用分页符隔开。也就是说，第一外文文献部分结束后，使用分页符，另起一页开始翻译。

3.格式方面，外文文献的格式，除了字体统一使用Times new roman之外，其他所有都跟中文论文的格式一样。中文翻译的格式，跟中文论文的格式一样。

（注意：备注页这一整页的内容都不需要打印，看懂了即可,定稿后,请删除本页.）

【Abstract】Exports of dairy products are becoming increasingly important in terms of export earnings for Australia. The industry is the fourth highest foreign exchange earner compared to all Australia's food exports. However, Australian exports of dairy products account for about 67 per cent of the total Australian production of dairy products, and about 13 per cent of total world exports of dairy products. About 68 per cent of Australian dairy products exports are sold on Asian markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenging issues and opportunities for Australian exports of dairy products on world markets and to identify potential and emerging export markets for Australian dairy products.Australia is highly restricted on its access to world dairy product markets by the impact of export subsidies and other trade barriers of overseas markets. The current cconomic and political crises in Asia are also not favourable to maintain export sales on some of the Asian markets.The export support schcme in Australia has made exporting attractive relativc to domestic sales. But it is anticipated that the termination of the scheme after June 2000, will reduce production and exports by 6 and 20 per cent, respectively in the short run. However, in the long run,resources will be efficiently used without government intervention and Australian dairy products will also bc competitivc on the domestic market.There is scope for greater market opportunities in the emerging markets in Asia and other parts of the world for Australian dairy products.Australia will also bcnefit from the agreement on international trade that directs exporting countries to reduce export subsidy and remove non-tariff trade barriers on exports of dairy products. Australia should implement appropriatc measures to increase the milk yield per ww, to improve the quality of dairy products and to identify the need for market promotion and rescarch in order to increase the volume of dairy product exports on world markets, especially in Asia and othcr potential markets such as Middle East,Africa, Europe and the Americas.

【Keywords】Australia, Dairy Milk

（本页为英文文献摘要，关键词两项一起单独一页，字体为：Times New Roman，小四号，1.5倍行距）

I. DAIRY PRODUCTS INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA

Dairy manufacturing is one of Australia's leading dairy industries.In terms of foreign exchange earnings, the industry ranks fourth (after meat, wheat and sugar) compared to all Australia's food exports(ADIC, 1996). The real gross value of production was estimated atA$1.7 billion in 1997, accounting for about 66 per cent of the combined value of market and manufacturing milk at the farm gate. The total real value of Australian exports of dairy products was about $A1.3 billion in 1996, and represented about 8 per cent of total farm exports. Likewise, Australia's dairy exports contributed about 2 per cent to total Australian exports in 1995-96 (Doucouliagos,1997). However, Australia has little influence on world price as its share accounted for about 13 per cent of world trade in 1996.

Manufacturing milk is produced in all states in Australia, and there are significant regional differences in the production of dairying due to climatic and natural resources that are favorable to dairying to be produced based on year round pasture grazing (NSWA, 1996-97). In 1997, national milk production was estimated at 9 billion litres, and New South Wales is second behind Victoria, accounting for 13 per cent and 62 per cent, respectively of the nation's annual milk production(ABARE, 1997). Total milk production increased at an average of about 4.7 per cent between 1988 and 1997. About 7.1 billion litres of milk were used for manufacturing purposes, accounting for about 79 per cent of the total milk production. Victoria accounts for 79 per cent,Tasmania 6 per cent, and NSW 5 per cent of the total dairy products produced in the country (ADC,1997).

The production of dairy products recorded an average increase of 8.8 per cent between 1988 and 1997. However, Australian exports of dairy products as a proportion of total production increased on average by 0.4 per cent over the same period. This was due to world surplus production of dairy products as a result of domestic industry support by some of the world's largest producers (EU and USA). Subsidised exports of dairy products account for about 50 per cent of globally traded dairy products, and this lowers international market prices of dairy products (ADIC, 1997). Australian production of dairy products accounted for about 4 per cent of total world production, and about 13 per cent of total world export sales . Thus, price taker countries such as Australia are adversely affected by the exportable surpluses of dairy products directed to world markets by major exporting countries.

The expansion of milk production in Australia has come from an increase in the number of dairy cows. The number of daq cows increased from 1,714,000 head in 1988 to 2,046,000 head in 1997, an average increase of about 1.9 per cent. The milk yield per cow also recorded an average increase of about 2 per cent over the same period.However, the milk yield per cow declined by about 5 per cent in 1997 compared to 1996. This is attributed to drought and other adverse weather conditions experienced by many dairy-producing regions.

Australia's dairy products industry has the potential to increase the volume of its production and exports since the country is well endowed with natural resources necessary to increase dairy production.It also has suitable climate that is favourable to dairy production based on year round pasture production. In addition, Australia's dairy farms are family owned and operated, and hired labour does not contribute a higher percentage to the cost of production. Thus, Australia is considered as one of the efficient, low cost milk producing countries (ADC,1997). The country has also locational advantage to have access to the Asian markets, which are the major importers of Australian dairy products.The domestic production capacity and the exports of dairy products are positively related. Accordingly,the volume of exports could be increased through the expansion of manufacturing milk production by increasing the number of dairy herds and milk yield per cow, provided Australia makes an effort to undertake marketing promotion and research to capture sizeable market shares in the potential and emerging markets.A study carried out by ABARE has projected that milk production in Australia will increase by about 3 per cent a year to the 1999-2000 fiscal year.This has been attributed mainly to the estimated increase in the number of dairy herds, milk yield per cow, improved pasture, livestock management techniques and increased capital investment (ADIC, 1996).

II.MARKETING ARRANGEMENTS FOR MANUFACTURING MILK IN AUSTRALIA To facilitate the proper functioning of a free market system, market information must be available so that buyers and sellers are aware of the production and pricing arrangements (Kidane and Gunawardana,Downloaded by [The University of British Columbia] at 00:35 10 June 2013 1997, p. 37). Thus, producers and consumers would perform their functions efficiently, and prices and quality of dairy products will be competitive. To assist in meeting these market criteria, the government has established the Australian Dairy Industry Council (ADIC), Products Federation Inc. (ADPF), Australia Dairy Farmers' Federation Ltd. (ADFF), Market Milk

Federation of Australia Inc. (MMFA),Australian Dairy Corporation (ADC) and Dairy Research Development Corporation (DRDC). These organisations are expected among other things to disseminate market information and coordinate production and market activities. For example, some of the major objectives of the ADC are to improve the domestic market for dairy pioducts; to provide technical and product advice to emerging markets; to undertake a range of export promotion activities in overseas markets;and international promotion focused on growing Asian markets such as Japan, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, Singapore, etc. (ADIC,1996). The farm gate pricing and domestic milk support schemes are discussed below.

(i)Farm Gate Pricing

The government does not have formal control over the prices processors pay to farmers Producing milk used in manufacturing products. The manufacturing milk prices are based on both milk fat and protein, and payment to farmers by processors also depends on the quality, volumes and seasonal incentives. High prices are offered to farmers by factories to encourage them to maintain production during the dry period.

Most manufacturers offer different prices as their profits are affected by factors such as product mix, marketing strategies and processing efficiencies (NSWA, 1996-97). Consequently, farm gate prices paid for manufacturing milk are lower than the prices paid for market milk . (ii)Domestic Milk Support Scheme

Prior to July 1, 1995, the marketing of manufactured dairy products were funded by a levy on all Australian milk production under the Market Support Scheme (Crean Plan). The scheme raised domestic farm gate prices for manufacturing milk above international prices by about 2 cents a litre. However, following the Uruguay Round agreement on manufactured dairy products, Australia introduced a scheme known as 'Domestic Market Support Scheme (DMS)' on July 1, 1995. The new scheme that is administered by the Australian Dairy Corporation imposes compulsory levies both on market milk and manufacturing milk for sales on the domestic market. In 1997-98, the rates of these levies were about 1.9 and 3.8 cents per litre,respectively (ADC, 1997). The funds raised by these levies are targeted to make domestic support payment to farmers who produce manufacturing milk. This scheme provides incentives to farmers to increase production of milk used in dairy products for export markets. However,this extended market arrangement will cease at the end of June 2000,and like many other industries,

the dairy industry will receive Commonwealth assistance estimated at 5 per cent in tariff terms after June 2000. In 1995/96, this implicit export subsidy increased gross returns on manufacturing milk by about 7 per cent (Industry Commission, 1997). This has made exporting dairy products more attractive and has encouraged milk producers to use most of the resources in the production of dairying.

However, it is predicted that the removal of this export support will reduce milk production by 6 per cent and the volume of exports by 20 per cent as producers will concentrate on the domestic markets. This will have a short term effect of reducing manufacturing milk producers' incomes, and may also encourage producers to move some resources into alternative enterprises in the long run. Consequently, this is likely to reduce production of manufactured dairy products for export markets with effect from the end of June 2000. However, given the available resources necessary to increase the volume of production, with efficient use of resources without government intervention and export promotion undertaken by ADC and DRDC, Australian dairy producers will still have the incentives to focus on both export and domestic markets. Optimal allocation of resources is also likely to increase dairy production, while domestic prices will decline, as the exportable surplus will be directed to domestic markets (ABARE, 1991a).

III.AUSTRALIAN DAIRY PRODUCTS EXPORTS AND CHALLENGING ISSUES In Australia, milk production is subject to seasonal influences, but production and exports of dairy products have recorded an average increase of about 8.8 per cent and 12.9 per cent between 1988 and 1997. The export price, which includes export freight,insurance, export commission and handling charges, is very attractive compared to the domestic wholesale prices. This partly acts as an incentive for producers to direct a large percentage of their dairy products to export markets and Australian dairy products to be less competitive on domestic markets.

Australia is considered as a relatively non-subsidized exporter compared to EU and the USA, and Australia has to compete with countries, which have considerable domestic dairy industry support and guaranteed price for manufactured products. Australia is being excluded by the impact of these export subsidy programs of the major competitors to have access to world markets. As specified in the Uruguay Round Outcome (GAW, the agreement (reduction in export subsidies and use of tariffs as trade barriers)is being implemented over a five year period with effect from 1995.However, the short run effect from the termination of the domestic support

scheme and the limited access that Australia will have to overseas markets until the Uruguay agreement is fully implemented, will have negative impacts on the exports of Australian dairy products.

Cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder are the major components of exports of Australian dairy products and account for 22, 33 and 17 per cent of the total exports. Australian exports have continued to grow and accounted for about 67 per cent of total production of dairy products in 1997. However, Australia still has the potential to increase the volume of dairy production,which can be achieved by improved feed, breeding and farm management practices. But Australia will have to give priority to export development to sell the additional supply of dairy products to emerging markets in Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas.

In 1997, major importers of Australian dairy products (mainly skim milk powder, cheese and whole milk powder) were Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore, and their market shares accounted for about 41 per cent of Australia's total exports of dairy products. Japan and the Philippines are the major importers of Australian cheese and skim milk powder, respectively. In 1997, Japan's imports of cheese accounted for about 47 per cent of Australia's total exports of cheese, and the Philippines's imports of skim milk powder accounted for about 34.4 per cent of ~ustralia's total exports of skim milk powder (ABARE, 1997). The total volume of exports and total real value of dairy products have increased by 21 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively in 1997 compared to 1996. The world dairy production also increased by about 2 per cent over the same period. This partly affected the Australian export prices and the increase in the value of exports is substantially lower compared to the volume of exports .

Asia is the leading export market for Australian dairy products.However, it is anticipated that there are considerable hurdles-to maintain sales on export markets in the region. Most of the Asian nations are experiencing slow economic growth due to the recent financial crisis and political instability in some parts of the region.

Australia imports dairy products (mainly cheese) to meet the increasing domestic consumption as most of the country's dairy products are exported due to the relative attractiveness of exporting to domestic sales.The total domestic consumption of dairy products fluctuated throughout the 1990s but has shown an upward trend in recent years. Thus, the volume of dairy products sales on the domestic market had also fluctuated during the same period but

increased on average by about 2 per cent between 1988 and 1997. Similarly, the consumption per person of dairy products has been fluctuating since 1989 but has increased on average by 2.9 per cent over the same period.

Imports of dairy products increased on average by about 7.2 per cent, and exports of the same product recorded an average increase of about 12.8 per cent, between 1988 and 1997.Prices of imported dairy products are relatively lower compared with the prices of domestically processed dairy products. Imports of dairy products at lower prices have made the Australian processed dairy products less competitive on domestic markets. New Zealand is the major supplier of cheese to Australia. The closer Economic Relations agreement between New Zealand and Australia has made Australia's domestic markets more accessible to New Zealand's exportable surplus production of dairy products (ABARE, 1991b). Australia's production costs are similar to those in NZ, but dairy products imported from NZ are relatively cheaper compared to Australia's dairy products sold on domestic markets. Limited domestic market capacity and the inaccessibility of other overseas markets for NZ's exportable excess production, are some of the factors that made NZ's dairy products relatively cheaper on the Australian domestic market. Ⅳ.EXPORT MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTXALIAN DAIRY PRODUCTS In 1997, Australian total real export value of dairy products was estimated at $1.3 billion and recorded an increase of about 3.5 per cent compared with 1996 . Australian exports of dairy products to S.E. Asia and other Asian countries accounted for about 44 and 25 per cent of their total imports of dairy products, respectively and about 69 per cent of Australia's total exports of dairy products in 1996. Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore,Thailand and Taiwan are the major importers of Australia's dairy products, and their imports account for about 55 per cent of Australia's total exports (ABARE, 1997).

Japan, which is considered the number one Asian per capita consumer of dairy products, is the largest importer of dairy products in the Asian region. It is also the largest market for Australian dairy products and the major export market especially for Australian cheese. In 1996, its total imports of dairy products were estimated at 185.3 thousands tonnes, and about 48 per cent of its total imports was purchased from Australia .

Cheese accounted for about 22 per cent of Australia's total exports of dairy products in 1997, and exports to Japan accounted for about 48 per cent of Australia's total exports of cheese

(ABARE, 1997). Under the Uruguay Round agreement on dairy products trade, Japan is committed to purchase a minimum of about 137,202 tonnes of dairy products.This provides greater export market opportunities for Australian dairy products in the Japanese market. This is based on the assumption that Japan would take action to reduce any existing trade barriers under the proposed Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) free trade agreement and the Uruguay (GATT) commitment.

The bulk of Australia's dairy products are exported to the Asian countries, mainly due to Australia's geographical proximity to the region. The lower transportation costs have given Australia competitive advantage over other exporting countries. However, as a result of the recent financial crisis and political instability in some of the Asian countries, their economic growth is slowing down. Australia will need to give priority to export development to emerging markets in which it has competitive advantage. Australia has to diversify its export market base and focus on the markets in Africa, the Americas, Middle East, Europe, Russia, and the Pacific. The imports of dairy products of these countries accounted for about 12, 24, 11, 8 and 3 per cent of total world exports, respectively in 1996. Australia's exports of dairy products to these countries account for about 0.6, 0.9, 0.9, 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 per cent of total world exp&, respectively during the same period.imports are also estimated at 20 per cent of the total consumption requirements. The preferential tariff agreement between China and Australia will remove the trade barriers for Australian dairy products exports to China (ADIC, 1996).

Australia's exports to China accounted for about 5 per cent of China's total dairy products imports in 1996. There is also a scope for greater export market opportunities for Australian dairy products in S. Korea. It is estimated that per capita consumption of dairy products will rise from 45 kg in 1991-92 to more than 63 kg in 2000 (ADIC, 1996). The country is expected to liberalise its trade barriers under the Uruguay Round arrangement. Australia's exports of dairy products to S. Korea account for about 0.02 per cent of Australia's total exports and 0.16 per cent of S. Korea's total imports . The geographical proximity and quality of Australian dairy products will provide better opportunities for Australian exporters to have large market shares in the Chinese and S. Korean markets.

Australian exports of dairy products to Europe mainly consist of cheese, and the Australian exports account for 5 per cent of Europe'stotal imports of cheese. However, after the

implementation of the Uruguay Round agreement, Australia's exports to Europe increased at an average of over 30 per cent between 1995 and 1997 (ABARE,1997). Australia has to make efforts to establish markets in the EU member countries as the annual global EU quotas are increasing by 83,175 tonnes for cheese and curd, 67,933 for SMP and 10,000 tonnes for butter (ADC, 1997). Likewise, the USA has agreed to increase import levels for all major dairy products, and Australia has to compete in terms of quality and volume to increase its market share in the USA market.

【摘要】对于澳大利亚的出口收入，奶制品出口变得越来越重要。这个行业在澳大利亚的食品出口外汇中占第四位。然而，奶制品占澳大利亚出口的约67％，总的澳大利亚生产的奶制品，占世界总出口量的奶制品约13％。澳大利亚奶制品出口的约68％销往亚洲市场。本文的目的是检查澳大利亚奶制品出口在世界市场上的具有挑战性的问题和机会，并找出澳洲乳制品潜力和新兴出口市场。澳大利亚被严格限制其进入世界奶制品市场的影响出口补贴和其他贸易壁垒的海外市场。当前的经济危机和政治危机，在亚洲也是不利于维护一些亚洲市场。出口支持计划，在澳大利亚取得了出口相对吸引国内销售的出口销售。但预计该计划终止后，2000年6月，将减少生产和出口6和20％，分别在短期内。然而，从长远来看，资源将被有效地使用没有政府干预的情况下，澳大利亚的奶制品也将是竞争力上国内市场.这在新兴市场是一个更大的市场机会，在亚洲和世界其他地区的范围澳洲乳制品.澳大利亚也将受益于国际贸易，引导出口国减少出口补贴和消除非关税贸易壁垒对出口奶制品协议。澳大利亚应该采取适当的措施，加大湿重的产奶量，提高乳制品质量，并确定需要进行市场的推广和彭世寿，程星为了增加奶制品出口量在世界市场上，尤其是在亚洲和其他潜在市场如中东，非洲，欧洲和美洲。（将上面英文摘要翻译出来）

【关键词】澳大利亚，牛奶（将上面英文关键词翻译出来）

摘要与关键词：本页内容单独一页，用小四号宋体字，1.5倍行距

(注:以下为英文文献翻译正文内容，具体标题以原文为准，全文字体和论文的格式一样，行间距为1.5倍，字号大小与论文正文的各级标题一致，如下:)

一、澳大利亚的乳制工业（中文每段开头空两个字符，段前段后0行）

乳制品制造业是澳大利亚领先的乳品行业.澳大利亚的所有食品出口（ADIC，1996年）是条款的外汇收入之一，在行业中排名第四（肉类，小麦和糖后）。真正的生产总值在1997年估计为17亿美元，占约66％的市场和生产的牛奶在农场门口的总价值。澳大利亚奶制品出口的真正价值总额是1996年的约1.3亿美元，占农产品出口总额的8％左右。同样，澳大利亚的乳品出口贡献了约2％，在1995-96年度澳大利亚出口总额（1997）。然而，澳大利亚对世界价格的影响不大，其份额在1996年占世界贸易的13％左右。

在澳大利亚所有州制造的牛奶生产，并有显着的区域差异，在乳业生产的，由于气候和自然资源，有利于乳业生产的基础上，全年草场放牧（NSWA1996-97）。在1997年，全国牛奶产量估计为900十亿升，新南威尔士州是仅次于维多利亚，占13％和62％，分别占全国的牛奶年产量（ABARE，1997）。牛奶总产量的增加，平均约4.7％，1988年和1997年之间。大约7.1亿升牛奶被用于制造用途，占牛奶总产量的79％左右。维多利亚占79％，塔斯马尼亚6％，和新南威尔士州5％，在国内生产总奶制品（ADC，1997）。

奶制品的生产录得1988年和1997年间的平均增幅为8.8％。然而，澳大利亚奶制品出口占总产量的比例平均增加0.4％，较上年同期。这是因为由于国内产业支持一些世界上最大的生产商（欧盟和美国）世界公积生产乳制品。资助的奶制品出口占约50％的全球贸易奶制品，这降低了国际市场价格的奶制品（ADIC，1997年）。澳大利亚生产的奶制品占世界总产量的4％左右，占世界总出口销售额的13％左右。因此，价格的接受者，澳大利亚等国受到不利影响的奶制品主要出口国向世界市场出口盈余。

乳牛的数量增加来自澳大利亚牛奶产量的扩张。从1,714,000头的DAQ奶牛数量增加在1997年，平均增加约1.9％，在1988年至2,046,000头。每头奶牛的产奶量记录平均增幅较上年增加约2％.但是，每头奶牛的产奶量与1997年至1996年相比下降约5％，这是由于干旱和其他恶劣天气条件下所经历的许多乳品产区。

澳大利亚的奶制品行业有可能增加其生产和出口量，因为该国拥有丰富的自然资源必要增加乳制制品.该国气候适宜，有利于根据一年四季牧草生产的乳品生产。此外，澳大利亚的奶牛场是家庭拥有和经营，并雇佣出工不出力的生产成本较高的百分比。因此，澳大利亚被认为为一体的高效率，低成本的牛奶生产国（ADC，1997）。该国也有区位优势，有进入亚洲市场，这是澳洲乳品产品国内生产能力和奶制品的出口是正相关的主要进口国。因此，出口量可以通过增加牛奶生产制造的扩张，通过增加奶牛存栏数和每头奶牛的产奶量，澳大利亚作出努力，开展市场推广和研究，来获得可观的市场份额的潜力和新兴

市场.开展学习ABARE预计澳大利亚牛奶产量将增加约3％的速度增长，到1999-2000.奶牛存栏数，产奶量估计增加主要归因于每头奶牛，改良草场，牲畜的管理技术和资本投资增加（ADIC，1996）。

二、澳大利亚制造牛奶的销售安排

为了促进自由市场体系的正常运作，市场信息必须让买家和卖家都知道的生产和定价安排（基达和古纳瓦德纳，下载[加拿大英属哥伦比亚大学]2013年6月10日，第37页）。因此，生产商和消费者将有效地履行自己的职能，将有竞争力的价格和奶制品的质量。为了帮助满足这些市场条件，政府成立了澳大利亚乳业局（ADIC），联邦公司产品（ADPF），澳大利亚奶农联合会有限公司（ADFF）在市场牛奶联合会澳大利亚公司（MMFA的）澳大利亚乳业股份有限公司（ADC）和：乳业研究开发公司（DRDC）。预计这些组织除其他事项外，传播市场信息，协调生产和市场活动。例如，一些ADC的主要目标是：改善国内乳制品pioducts市场;向新兴市场提供技术和产品的意见;采取一系列海外出口市场推广活动市场;及国际推广，专注于不断增长的亚洲市场，如日本，香港，中国，越南，新加坡等（ADIC，1996）。农门定价和国产奶粉的支持计划在下面讨论。

（一）农场大门定价

政府没有正式的价格处理器的控制权支付给农民用于制造产品的生产牛奶。所生产的牛奶价格是根据牛奶中的脂肪和蛋白质，并支付给农民处理器还取决于质量，数量和季节性奖励。高的价格向农民提供的工厂，以鼓励他们干期间维持生产。

大多数制造商提供不同的价格，因为他们的利润受到影响的因素，如产品结构，营销策略和处理效率（NSWA1996-97）。因此，支付制奶农场价格均低于市场奶支付的价格。

（二）国产奶粉支援计划

1995年7月1日之前生产的奶制品，营销资金市场支持计划（克林规划）下的所有中国牛奶产量的征款。该计划提出了国内农场价格高于国际市场价格的制奶约2美分一升。然而，随着澳大利亚制造的奶制品在乌拉圭回合协议，被称为“国内市场支持计划（DMS）”1995年7月1日实施了一项计划。新的方案，该方案由澳大利亚乳业公司管理规定强制征收牛奶市场和制造在国内市场上销售的牛奶。在1997-98年度，这些征收率分别为每升约1.9和3.8美分，分别为（ADC，1997年）。这些征费所筹集的资金，有针对性地进行国内支持支付给农民生产制造牛奶。该方案提供了鼓励农民增加生产牛奶应用于乳制品出口市场。然而，这个扩展的市场安排将在2000年6月底终止，许多其他行业一样，乳品行业将估计在5％关税后，2000年6月获得联邦援助。这种隐含的出口补贴在

1995/96年度，制造牛奶的总收益增加7％左右（工业委员会，1997）。这使得出口乳制品产品更具吸引力，并鼓励牛奶生产者使用的大部分资源在乳业生产。

不过，预计出口的支持力度，取消这个牛奶产量的6％，出口量将减少20％，作为生产者将专注于国内市场。这将有一个短期效应，降低生产牛奶生产者的收入，也可以鼓励生产者将一些替代资源投入到企业的长远。因此，这很可能是降低生产制造的奶制品出口市场，2000年6月底起。然而，由于要加大生产量，没有政府的干预和促进出口由ADC 和DRDC的进行资源的高效利用可用资源，澳洲乳品生产商将仍然专注于出口和国内市场的诱因。资源优化配置，也有可能增加乳制品生产，而国内的价格会有所下降，出口盈余将被引导到国内市场（ABARE，1991a）。

三、澳大利亚奶制品出口的问题和挑战

在澳大利亚，牛奶生产受季节性影响，但奶制品的产量和出口量已录得约8.8％和12.9％，1988年和1997年间的平均增幅。出口价格，其中包括出口运费，保险费，出口佣金和手续费，是非常有吸引力的，相比国内的批发价格。这部分作为激励生产者直接有很大比例的出口市场和澳大利亚奶制品奶制品是国内市场上竞争力较弱。

澳大利亚被认为相对非补贴出口到欧盟和美国相比，澳大利亚的国家，其中有相当多的国内乳品行业的支持和保证制成品的价格竞争。澳大利亚正在排除这些出口补贴计划的主要竞争对手有进入世界市场的影响。中指定的乌拉圭回合谈判成果（全球大气监测网，该协议正在实施从1995年起，在五年内减少出口补贴和关税贸易壁垒。然而，短期效应，从国内支持计划，并终止在有限的访问，澳大利亚将不得不到海外市场，直到乌拉圭协议得到全面落实，将有澳大利亚奶制品出口的负面影响。

奶酪，脱脂奶粉和全脂奶粉是澳大利亚主要奶制品,账户为22，33和17％是出口总额出口的主要组成部分。澳大利亚的出口持续增长，并在1997年占了奶制品生产总量的67％左右。然而，澳大利亚仍然有可能增加乳制品生产量，可以通过改进饲料，养殖和农场管理做法。但澳大利亚将不得不放弃优先发展出口出售额外的奶制品供应，新兴市场在亚洲，中东，非洲和美洲。

在1997年，澳大利亚乳制品产品（主要是脱脂牛奶粉，奶酪和全脂奶粉）的主要进口商日本，马来西亚，菲律宾，泰国和新加坡，其市场份额占澳大利亚总出口的奶制品约的41％。日本和菲律宾分别是主要进口澳洲奶酪和脱脂奶粉。在1997年，日本的奶酪进口占澳大利亚总出口奶酪约47元％，菲律宾的进口脱脂奶粉占澳大利亚总出口的脱脂奶粉约34.4元％（ABARE，1997）。奶制品出口和真正的价值总量分别与1997年和1996年

相比增加了21％和3.5％，。世界奶业生产也较上年同期上升约2％。这在一定程度上影响了澳大利亚的出口价格和出口值的增加相比，出口量大幅降低。

亚洲是全球领先的澳大利亚乳制品出口市场.然后，预计要保持在该地区出口市场的销售有相当大的障碍。大多数亚洲国家正在经历缓慢的经济增长，由于最近的金融危机和政治不稳定在该地区的某些部分。

澳大利亚进口乳制品（主要是奶酪），以满足日益增长的国内消费，因为大多数国家的奶制品出口由于出口到国内销售，国内总消费量的奶制品在整个20世纪90年代波动的相对吸引力，但在最近几年已经显示出向上的趋势。因此，在国内市场上的奶制品销售的体积也波动在同一时期，但在1988年和1997年之间平均增加约2％。同样，每人奶制品消费自1989年以来一直波动，但较上年同期平均上升2.9％。

进口乳制品平均增加约7.2％，而同一产品的出口平均增幅约12.8％之间，1988年和进口奶制品1997.价格与国内乳品加工产品的价格相比相对较低。进口乳制品以较低的价格取得了澳大利亚乳品加工产品较少，在国内市场上的竞争力。新西兰的奶酪，澳大利亚的主要供应商。新西兰和澳大利亚之间关于建立更紧密经贸关系协议，取得了澳大利亚的国内市场更容易获得新西兰生产的奶制品出口盈余（ABARE，1991b）。在新西兰澳大利亚的生产成本是相似的，但是从新西兰进口的奶制品相比，澳大利亚的乳制品在国内市场销售的产品相对便宜。国内市场容量有限，交通不便等海外市场对新西兰的出口过剩产，新西兰的奶制品在澳大利亚国内市场相对便宜的一些因素。

四、澳大利亚奶制品出口市场的机会

在1997年，澳大利亚奶制品真正的总出口值估计在$1.3亿美元，并录得同比增长约3.5％，与1996年相比。澳大利亚奶制品出口标准误亚洲和其他亚洲国家分别占了其总进口乳制品约44和25％。在1996年，澳大利亚奶制品出口总额的约69％的。日本，菲律宾，马来西亚，新加坡，泰国，台湾，澳大利亚的乳制品产品的主要进口国，其进口量占澳大利亚总出口（ABARE，1997年）的55％左右。

日本，这被认为是头号亚洲人均消费奶制品，奶制品在亚洲地区的最大进口国。这也是澳大利亚奶制品主要出口市场，尤其是澳大利亚奶酪的最大市场。在1996年，据估计其总进口乳制品185.3万吨，占其进口总额的约48％是从澳大利亚购买。

奶酪占澳大利亚奶制品出口总额的约22％，于1997年，对日本出口占约48％的澳大利亚出口总额的奶酪（ABARE，1997年）。根据乌拉圭回合协议的奶制品贸易，日本承诺购买最低的约137,202吨乳制品产品。这为澳洲乳品产品在日本市场提供了更大的出口市

场机会。这是基于假设，日本将采取行动，以减少任何现有的贸易壁垒根据拟议的亚洲太平洋经济合作组织（APEC）的自由贸易协定（GATT）乌拉圭承诺。

澳大利亚的奶制品的大部分都出口到亚洲国家，主要是由于澳大利亚的地理接近该地区。较低的运输成本已经给澳大利亚其他出口国的竞争优势。然而，在一些亚洲国家最近的金融危机和政治不稳定的结果，其经济增长放缓。澳大利亚将需要优先考虑出口新兴市场中具有竞争优势的发展。澳大利亚拥有多元化其出口市场的基础和重点在非洲，美洲，中东，欧洲，俄罗斯，和太平洋上的市场。这些国家的奶制品进口占约12，24，11，8，世界出口总额的3％，分别于1996年。澳大利亚奶制品出口到这些国家的约0.6，0.9，0.9，0.6，0.1和0.1％，占世界进出口分别占同一时期。进口量也估计在20％的总消费量的要求。中国和澳大利亚之间的优惠关税协定将删除澳大利亚奶制品出口到中国（ADIC，1996年）的贸易壁垒。

澳大利亚对中国的出口占中国总进口奶制品于1996年的5％左右。还有一个范围更大的出口市场的机会在南韩澳大利亚奶制品。据估计，人均乳制品消费量将在1991-92年的45公斤上升到超过63公斤（ADIC，1996年）在2000年。根据乌拉圭回合谈判的安排，该国预计将贸易壁垒自由化。澳大利亚奶制品出口韩国占澳大利亚出口总额的0.16％韩国进口总额的约0.02％。地理上的接近和澳大利亚奶制品质量提供更好的机会，为澳大利亚出口商有很大的市场份额，在中国和韩市场。

澳大利亚奶制品出口到欧洲，主要包括奶酪，澳大利亚出口占5％，欧洲总进口的奶酪。但是，乌拉圭回合协议实施后，澳大利亚对欧洲的出口增长平均超过30％在1995年和1997年之间（ABARE，1997年）。澳大利亚努力建立在欧盟成员国，欧盟每年全球配额市场增加了83,175吨奶酪和豆腐，SMP为67,933吨和10,000吨黄油（ADC，1997）。同样，美国已同意为所有主要奶制品进口量增加，澳大利亚的质量和数量，以增加其在美国市场的市场份额竞争。