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第1期联邦调查局造就了美国的恐怖分子
视频地址：微信公众号(tedenglish)第1期,回复201601即可观看.
演讲稿原文:
1.The FBI is responsible for more terrorism plots in the United States than any other organization.
联邦调查局是在美国的多起恐怖主义阴谋的幕后黑手，数量比其他任何组织都要多。
2.More than al Qaeda, more than al Shabaab, more than the Islamic State, more than all of them combined.
比“基地组织”，比“索马里青年党”，比“伊拉克和沙姆伊斯兰国”都多，甚至比他们加起来都多。
3.This isn't likely how you think about the FBI.
这跟你们印象中的联邦调查局大相径庭吧。
4.You probably think of FBI agents gunning down bad guys like John Dillinger, or arresting corrupt politicians.
印象中的联邦调查局特工应该逮捕约翰·迪林杰这样的坏蛋，或者将腐败的政客绳之以法。
5.After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the FBI became less concerned with gangsters and crooked elected officials.
在“9·11”恐怖袭击之后，联邦调查局无暇顾及匪徒或者官员中的败类。
6.The new target became terrorists, and the pursuit of terrorists has consumed the FBI.
恐怖分子是他们的新目标，而追捕恐怖分子让联邦调查局焦头烂额。
7.Every year, the Bureau spends 3.3 billion dollars on domestic counterterrorism activities.
每年，联邦调查局花费33亿美元用于国内反恐。
https://www.360docs.net/doc/bd7270571.html,pare than to just 2.6 billion dollars combined for organized crime, financial fraud, public corruption and all other types of traditional criminal activity.
相比之下，用于调查有组织犯罪，金融诈骗，官员腐败等传统犯罪行为的资金加起来才26亿美元。
9.I've spent years pouring through the case files of terrorism prosecutions in the United States, and I've come to the conclusion that the FBI
我花了好几年时间研究了美国的涉恐案卷，我得出一个结论：联邦调查局10.is much better at creating terrorists than it is at catching terrorists.
更擅长培养恐怖分子，而不是逮捕他们。
11.In the 14 years since 9/11, you can count about six real
terrorist attacks in the United States.
“9·11”发生后的14年间，美国本土发生了6起恐怖袭击。
12.These include the Boston Marathon bombings in 2013, as well as failed attacks, such as the time when a man named Faisal Shahzad tried to deliver a car bomb to Times Square.
包括2013年的波士顿马拉松爆炸案，和其他几起未遂案例，比如一个叫费萨尔·沙赫扎德的人计划在时代广场引爆汽车炸弹。
13.In those same 14 years, the Bureau, however, has bragged about how
it's foiled dozens of terrorism plots.
同样在这14年间，联邦调查局却不停在吹嘘他们挫败了数十起恐怖主义阴谋。
14.In all, the FBI has arrested more than 175 people in aggressive, undercover conterterrorism stings.
联邦调查局通过激进、秘密的反恐骗局总共逮捕了超过175人。
15.These operations, which are usually led by an informant, provide the means and opportunity, and sometimes even the idea, for mentally ill and economically desperate people
这些行动，通常由联邦调查局的线人领导，他们出谋划策，提供机会甚至直接授意，将那些有精神问题和穷困潦倒的人
16.to become what we now term terrorists.
变成我们现在所谓的恐怖分子。
17.After 9/11, the FBI was given an edict: never again.
“9·11”之后，联邦调查局接到的命令是：不再发生。
18.Never another attack on American soil.
不允许恐怖袭击在美国本土再次发生。
19.FBI agents were told to find terrorists before they struck.
联邦调查局特工奉命将恐怖袭击消灭在萌芽状态。
20.To do this, agents recruited a network of more than 15,000 informants nationwide, all looking for anyone who might be dangerous.
为完成任务，特工们在全国范围内招募了超过15000名线人，寻找任何可能带来危险的人。
21.An informant can earn 100,000 dollars or more for every terrorism case they bring to the FBI.
上报一件恐怖主义案件，线人能从联邦调查局得到超过10万美元的酬劳。
22.That's right, the FBI is paying mostly criminals and con men six figures to spy on communities in the United States, but mostly Muslim American communities.
你没听错，联邦调查局支付给这些线人——主要是罪犯和帮派分子—— 6
位数的酬劳让他们监视美国社群，主要是美国的穆斯林社群。
23.These informants nab people like Abu Khalid Abdul-Latif and Walli Mujahidh.
这些线人逮捕像阿布·哈立德·阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫和瓦利·穆加赫德这样的人。
24.Both are mentally ill.
他们都患有精神疾病。
25.Abdul-Latif had a history of huffing gasoline and attempting suicide.
阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫曾喝过汽油并试图自杀。
26.Mujahidh had schizoaffective disorder, he had trouble distinguishing between reality and fantasy.
穆加赫德患有精神分裂症，无力区分真实和幻想。
27.In 2012, the FBI arrested these two men for conspiring to attack a military recruiting station outside Seattle with weapons provided, of course, by the FBI.
2012年，联邦调查局逮捕了上述两人，罪名是密谋袭击西雅图郊外的一处征兵站，而他们的武器，毫无疑问，正是联邦调查局提供的。
28.The FBI's informant was Robert Childs, a convicted rapist and
child molester who was paid 90,000 dollars for his work on the case.
这个案子的线人名叫罗伯特·柴尔兹，有强奸和猥亵儿童的前科，因为这个案子他赚了9万美元。
29.This isn't an outlier.
这并不是偶然现象。
30.In 2009, an FBI informant who had fled Pakistan on murder charges led four men in a plot to bomb synagogues in the Bronx.
2009年，一名联邦调查局的线人，曾因犯谋杀罪逃离巴基斯坦，指挥四个人密谋炸毁（纽约）布朗克斯区的一处犹太教堂。
31.The lead defendant was James Cromitie, a broke Walmart employee with a history of mental problems.
第一被告名叫詹姆斯·克罗米蒂，是一名有精神病史的沃尔玛破产员工。32.And the informant had offered him 250,000 dollars if he participated in that plot.
这名线人给了他25万美元，让他参加这次袭击。
33.There are many more examples.
这样的例子还有很多。
34.Today, The Intercept published my new story about a counterterrorism sting in Tampa involving Sami Osmakac, a young man who was living near Tampa, Florida.
今天，“拦截”网站发表了我的新文章，是关于在坦帕的一起反恐阴谋，当事人叫萨米·奥斯马卡什，他是一名住在佛罗里达州坦帕市附近的年轻人。35.Osmakac also had schizoaffective disorder.
奥斯马卡什同样患有精神分裂症。
36.He too was broke, and he had no connections to international terrorist groups.
同样穷困潦倒，与国际恐怖主义组织毫无关联。
37.Nonetheless, an FBI informant gave him a job, handed him money, introduced him to an undercover agent posing as a terrorist, and lured him in a plot to bomb an Irish bar.
尽管如此，联邦调查局的一名线人还是给了他一份工作，交给他一笔钱，将他介绍给一名伪装成恐怖分子的联邦调查局探员，引诱他去炸毁一家爱尔兰酒吧。
38.But here's what's interesting: The lead undercover agent -- you can see him in this picture with his face blurred -- would go back to the Tampa field office with his recording equipment on.
有意思的是：领头的卧底特工，就是照片里打了马赛克这位，回到了在坦帕的区办公室，身上带着录音设备。
39.Behind closed doors, FBI agents admitted that what they were doing was farcical.
私底下，联邦调查局探员承认自己的所作所为是荒谬的。
40.A federal judge doesn't want you to hear about these conversations.
一位联邦法官不想公开这些谈话。
41.He sealed the transcripts and placed them under a protective order in an attempt to prevent someone like me from doing something like this.
他将谈话记录封存，严加看管，防止像我这样的人将其公之于众。
42.Behind closed doors, the lead agent, the squad supervisor, described their would-be terrorist as a "retarded fool who didn't have a pot to piss in."
私底下，这名领头的探员，小队队长，将这些未来的”恐怖分子“，描述为“穷困潦倒的弱智傻瓜”。
43.They described his terrorist ambitions as wishy-washy and a pipe dream scenario.
将他的恐怖主义目标描述为微不足道、白日做梦。
44.But that didn't stop the FBI.
但联邦调查局没有罢手。
45.They provided Sami Osmakac everything he needed.
他们为萨米·奥斯马卡什提供所需的一切。
46.They gave him a car bomb, they gave him an AK-47, they helped him make a so-called martyrdom video, and they even gave him money for a taxi cab
汽车炸弹，AK-47，帮他录制了一段所谓的“殉难”视频，甚至给他付了出租车钱，
47.so that he could get to where they wanted him to go.
送他前往选定的目标地点。
48.As they were working the sting, the squad supervisor tells his agents he wanted a Hollywood ending.
在设计整个圈套的过程中，小队队长告诉探员们，他想要一个好莱坞（电影）式的结尾。
49.And he got a Hollywood ending.
结果他如愿以偿了。
50.When Sami Osmakac attempted to deliver what he thought was a car bomb, he was arrested, convicted and sentenced to 40 years in prison.
当萨米·奥斯马卡什试图将汽车炸弹运送到位时，他被抓了，判入狱40年。
51.Sami Osmakac isn't alone.
萨米·奥斯马卡什并不是特例。
52.He's one of more than 175 so-called terrorists, for whom the FBI has created Hollywood endings.
他只是这超过175名所谓的“恐怖分子”中的一员，联邦调查局给他们编造了一个好莱坞（电影）式的结尾。
53.U.S. government officials call this the War on Terror.
美国政府官方所谓的“反恐战争”，
54.It's really just theater, a national security theater, with mentally ill men like Sami Osmakac unwitting actors in a carefully choreographed production
其实只是一场戏，一场国家安全的大戏，由萨米·奥斯马卡什这样的精神病人，在毫不知情的情况下出演，而剧本由联邦调查局
55.brought to you by the FBI.
精心编写，并呈献给大家。
56.Thank you.
谢谢。
57.(Applause) Tom Rielly: So, those are some pretty strong accusations, pretty strong charges.
（掌声）汤姆·雷利（TR）：这些指控非常严重，罪名很大。
58.How can you back this up?
你有什么依据吗？
59.Trevor Aaronson: My research began in 2010 when I received a grant from the Investigative Reporting Program at U.C. Berkeley, and a research assistant and I
特雷弗·阿伦森（TA）：我的研究开始于2010年，当时我受邀参加加州大学伯克利分校一个调查报告项目，我和我的研究助理
60.put together a database of all terrorism prosecutions at the time during the first decade after 9/11.
将“9·11”事件发生后十年以来所有恐怖主义案件的数据进行了汇总。61.And we used the court file to find out whether the defendants had any connections to international terrorist groups, whether an informant was used,
我们通过研究法院文件来调查这些案件的被告是否跟国际恐怖组织有关，是否有线人牵涉其中，
62.and whether the informant played the role of an agent provocateur by providing the means and opportunity.
线人是否扮演了卧底探员的角色，为他们（被告）出谋划策，创造机会。
63.And we submitted that to the FBI and we asked them to respond to our database.
我们将这些材料提交给了联邦调查局要求他们作出回应。
64.If they believed there were any errors, we asked them to tell us what they were and we'd go back and check and they never challenged any of our findings.
如果他们发现材料有误，可以指出来，我们会再查证，但他们从未反驳过我们的任何发现。
https://www.360docs.net/doc/bd7270571.html,ter, I used that data in a magazine article and later in my book, and on appearances on places like CBS and NPR, they were offered that opportunity again
之后，我将这些数据用在杂志文章上，用在我的书里，哥伦比亚广播公司和国家公共广播电台也用过这些数据，他们再次获得了反驳的机会，
66.to say, "Trevor Aaronson's findings are wrong."
大可以说，“特雷弗·阿伦森在胡扯。”
67.And they've never come forward and said, "These are the problems with those findings."
但他们从来没有站出来说，“这些事并不属实。”
68.So the data has since been used by groups like Human Rights Watch on its recent report on these types of sting operations.
所以这些数据最近被“人权观察”组织用在他们关于此类虚假行动的调查报告中。
69.And so far, the FBI has never really responded to these charges that it's really not catching terrorists so much as it's catching mentally ill people
到目前为止，联邦调查局从未正式回应上述指控：他们逮捕的不是恐怖分子，只是些精神病人
70.that it can dress up as terrorists in these types of sting operations.
被伪装成恐怖分子，上演了一出虚假反恐的戏码。
71.TR: So The Intercept is that new investigative journalism website, that's cofounded by Glenn Greenwald.
TR：“拦截”是一家新的进行新闻调查的网站，由格伦·格林沃尔德等人联合创建。
72.Tell us about your article and why there.
跟我们讲讲你的文章，为什么发表在他们网站。
73.TA: The Intercept seemed to be the most logical place for this because my article is really leveraging the fact that a source had leaked to me transcripts of these
TA：“拦截”是最适合发表的地方，因为我的文章揭露了一个事实，消息人士提供给我的录音文本
74.private FBI conversations that a federal judge had sealed based on the government's claim that their release would irreparably damage the U.S. government's
是联邦调查局的私密对话，联邦法官将其封存，因为政府认为一旦泄露，将对美国政府的执法战略
https://www.360docs.net/doc/bd7270571.html,w enforcement strategy.
带来无法弥补的损失。
76.So a place like The Intercept was set up to protect journalists and publish their work when they're dealing with very sensitive matters like this.
所以像“拦截”这样的网站就建立起来了，用来保护记者并发表他们的文章，尤其当记者在报道如此敏感的事件的时候。
77.So my story in The Intercept, which was just published today, tells the story of how Sami Osmakac was set up in this FBI sting and goes into much greater detail.
所以我的文章，今天刚刚在“拦截”上面刊登，讲述了萨米·奥斯马卡什如何被联邦调查局设计陷害，并挖掘了一些更深的细节。
78.In this talk, I could only highlight the things that they said, such as calling him a "retarded fool."
在本次演讲中，我只强调了他们所说的部分内容，比如称他为“弱智傻瓜”。
79.But it was much more elaborate, they went to great lengths to put money in Sami Osmakac's hands, which he then used to purchase weapons from the undercover agent.
但这更是个精心策划的阴谋，他们计划周详，为萨米·奥斯马卡什提供资金，他随后又从卧底探员手中购买武器。
80.When he went to trial, the central piece of evidence was that he paid for these weapons, when in truth, these transcripts show how the FBI orchestrated
当他接受审判时，他购买武器的行为成为了最关键的证据，但这些录音文本揭露了真相，联邦调查局精心策划，
81.someone who was essentially mentally ill and broke to get money to then pay for weapons that they could then charge him in a conspiracy for.
为这些精神病人和破产者提供资金，让他们购买武器，随后再起诉他们意图不轨。
82.TR: One final question.
TR：最后一个问题。
83.Less than 10 days ago, the FBI arrested some potential ISIS suspects in Brooklyn, saying that they might be headed to Syria, and were those real, or examples of more of the same?
不到十天前，联邦调查局在布鲁克林逮捕了一些“伊拉克和沙姆伊斯兰国”的嫌疑人，称他们可能会前往叙利亚，这件事是真的吗？还是同样只是演戏。
84.TA: Well so far, we only know what's come out in the court file, but they seem to suggest it's another example of the same.
TA：到目前为止，我们所知事实都来源于法庭文件，但在我看来这又是一场戏。
85.These types of sting operations have moved from flavor to flavor.
这种虚假反恐行动总是紧跟潮流，
86.So initially it was al Qaeda plots, and now the Islamic State is
the current flavor.
起初“基地组织”戏份最多，现在“伊斯兰国”成了他们的最爱。
87.What's worth noting about that case is that the three men that were charged only began the plot to go to Syria after the
introduction of the FBI informant,
这个案子值得注意的是，被指控的三名男子，都是在与联邦调查局的线人接触后，才开始密谋要前往叙利亚，
88.and in fact, the FBI informant had helped them with the travel documents that they needed.
而实际上，他们的旅行证件都是联邦调查局的线人帮他们办理的。
89.In kind of a comical turn in that particular case, one of the defendant's mother had found out that he was interested in going to Syria and had hid his passport.
最为搞笑的一个转折就是，其中一名被告的母亲在发现儿子要前往叙利亚后就把他的护照给藏起来了。
90.So it's unclear that even if he had showed up at the airport, that he ever could have gone anywhere.
所以即使他能成功抵达机场，恐怕也哪儿都去不了。
91.So yes, there are people who might be interested in joining the Islamic State in the United States, and those are people that the United States government should be looking at
的确，在美国也许会有人对加入“伊斯兰国”感兴趣，这部分人才是美国政府应该关注的，
92.to see if they're interested in violence here.
看他们是不是有暴力倾向。
93.In this particular case, given the evidence that's so far come out, it suggests the FBI made it possible for these guys to move along in a plan to go to Syria
而在这件案子中，就目前所掌握的证据而言，正是联邦调查局让这些人产
生了去叙利亚的想法，
94.when they were never close to that in the first place.
而之前他们可能连想都没想过。
95.TR: Thanks a lot, that's amazing. TA: Thank you. TR：非常感谢，很棒的演讲。TA：谢谢你。
第2期他创办了100多家企业，总结出5大成功因素
视频地址：微信公众号(tedenglish)第2期,回复201602即可观看.
演讲稿原文:
1.I'm really excited to share with you some findings that really surprise me about what makes companies succeed the most, what factors actually matter the most for startup success.
我非常高兴与大家分享令我非常惊讶的研究结果是有关创業成功的关键因素实际影响创業成功与否最关键的因素是什么
2.I believe that the startup organization is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.
我认为创業是使得世界变得更加美好的方式之一
3.If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives and organize them in a startup, you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.
如果你带领一组团队给他们适当的激励奖金开创一个事業你可以用前所未有的方式开启人类的潜能
4.You get them to achieve unbelievable things.
你让团队达到令人难以置信的成功
5.But if the startup organization is so great, why do so many fail?
但是既然创業是如此美好为什么有这么多人失败？
6.That's what I wanted to find out.
这是我想要找出原因的地方
7.I wanted to find out what actually matters most for startup success.
我想要找出导致创業成功最关键的因素
8.And I wanted to try to be systematic about it, avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have from so many companies I've seen over the years.
而且我试着系统化地找出关键因素以避免我的直觉和我的认知错误影响结果我观察多年来我见过的许多公司
9.I wanted to know this because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,
想要了解创業成功的关键因素因为我从十二岁就开始做生意就读初中时，我在公车站卖糖果
10.to high school, when I made solar energy devices, to college, when
I made loudspeakers.
高中时，我制作太阳能的装置大学时，我制作扩音器
11.And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.
大学毕業后，我成立软体公司
12.And 20 years ago, I started Idealab, and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies, many successes, and many big failures.
20 年前，我成立一家公司叫「创意实验室」(Idealab) 在这 20 年当中，我创办超过 100 家公司很多是成功的企業，但也有很失败的
13.We learned a lot from those failures.
我们从失败中学到许多宝贵经验
14.So I tried to look across what factors accounted the most for company success and failure.
所以我试着找出是什么因素导致一家公司成功或失败
15.So I looked at these five.
我找出五个因素
16.First, the idea.
第一个因素是，创意
17.I used to think that the idea was everything.
我以前认为有创新的点子最重要
18.I named my company Idealab for how much I worship the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.
我把我的公司名为「创意实验室」就知道我多么看重这个因素「啊！有了！」的当下有一个想法从脑中浮现
19.But then over time, I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability, that mattered even more than the idea.
但随着时间的过去我开始想或许团队成员、执行力及适应力甚至比创意还重要
20.I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage, but he once said, "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)
我从没想过会在 TED 讲台上引用拳击手麦克?泰森的话但他曾经说过「每个人都有自己的计画，直到他们脸上挨了一拳」（笑声）
21.And I think that's so true about business as well.
这句话可以完全适用在商场上
22.So much about a team's execution is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.
团队有是否有很强的执行力完全在于他们能否能适应被客户拳头打在脸上的能力
23.The customer is the true reality.
客户的反应才是真正的现实
24.And that's why I came to think that the team maybe was the most
important thing.
这就是为何我开始思考或许团队才是最重要的因素
25.Then I started looking at the business model.
然后我又开始研究「商業模式」
26.Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?
一个企業有明确的产生营收的方法吗？
27.That started rising to the top in my thinking about maybe what mattered most for success.
因此我开始思考或许这才是成功最关键的因素
28.Then I looked at the funding.
然后，我也考虑「募资」这个因素
29.Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.
有时后，企業筹得一大笔资金
30.Maybe that's the most important thing?
或许这才是最重要因素？
31.And then of course, the timing.
再来当然是「时机」
32.Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?
你脑海中的那个想法会不会现在还不适用呢？
33.Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?
会不会现在开始还太早?你必须教育消费者？
34.Is it just right?
时机点刚刚好？
35.Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?
或者太晚，市场上早已有大批的竞争者？
36.So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors across many companies.
我试着仔细地以这五个因素用来研究大量的公司
37.And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies, and 100 non-Idealab companies to try and come up with something scientific about it.
包括我创立的一百家公司和一百家非我创立的公司试着以科学方法找出关键的因素
38.So first, on these Idealab companies, the top five companies -- those all became billion-dollar successes.
首先，在我成立的公司其中最成功的五家公司这五家公司非常赚钱
39.And the five companies on the bottom -- we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.
而五家最差的公司，分别是我们对这些公司抱有很高的期望但仍然没有成功40.So I tried to rank across all of those attributes how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.
所以试着找出这些因素的排名这些公司如何在每一个因素中取得分数
41.And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes, like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.
在非我建立的公司名单中我找了一些极度成功的例子
42.And some failures: Flooz and Friendster.
也找了一些失败的公司
43.The bottom companies had intense funding, they even had business models in some cases, but they didn't succeed.
这些不成功的公司，筹得大笔资金有的甚至有商業模式但是没能成功
44.I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most for success and failure across all of these companies, and the results really surprised me.
我试着研究，什么因素对这些公司的成功和失败占有最高的比率结果让我很讶异
45.The number one thing was timing.
最重要的因素是「时机」
46.Timing accounted for 42 percent of the difference between success and failure.
这个比率是成功与失败公司之间的差异
47.Team and execution came in second, and the idea, the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea, that actually came in third.
「团队」和「执行力」排第二名然后是「创意」创意的可辨性，创意的独特性实际上排第三名
48.Now, this isn't absolutely definitive, it's not to say that the idea isn't important, but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.
这个研究并不是絶对完整并不是说「创意」不重要但令我讶异的是「创意」不是最重要的
49.Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.
有时比较重要的，其实是「时机」
50.The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.
最后二个是「商業模式」和「募资」这是可以理解的
51.I think business model makes sense to be that low because you can start out without a business model and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.
我想「商業模式」获得较低的排名是有道理的因为没有商業模式，也可以创業你的客户有需求时，再将商業模式加入
52.And funding, I think as well, if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction, especially in today's age, it's very, very easy to get intense funding.
募资也是一样道理即使刚开始没有资金但公司越来越受欢迎尤其是现在这时代你就很容易筹得一大笔资金
53.So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.
让我举几一些具体的例子
54.So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.
例如，大家熟知的、高度成功的 Airbnb
55.Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors